UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Wisniewski vs Aoki

1,788

CageRank

WINNER
Aoki

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
94% chance Aoki
WILL WIN

2,254

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Shinya Aoki
Much better submission offense 9.9 vs 7.6 More than 30% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Much harder to hit 10.0 vs 8.2 More than 20% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Fast finishes 9.4 vs 7.9 Around 20% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Much stronger takedown offense 9.6 vs 8.0 More than 20% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Much better takedown defense 9.7 vs 8.6 Around 15% better at avoiding being taken down
Better submission defense 9.8 vs 9.3 Around 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Slightly younger 34 years vs 36 years More than 5% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Advantages for Keith Wisniewski
Much heavier hands 7.3 vs 6.1 Around 20% better at knocking out good defenders
Better striker 8.3 vs 7.4 Around 15% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Heavier 169 lbs vs 153 lbs More than 10% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Slightly longer reach 185 cm vs 183 cm Almost the same
Aoki on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Wisniewski’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Shinya
Aoki
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Aoki Wisniewski
Significant Strikes43
Aoki's poor striking offense won't be a factor against Wisniewski's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Poor
Striking
vs
Below average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns5
Aoki's excellent takedown offense will dominate Wisniewski's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Aoki is unlikely to win by knockout
Weak
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Aoki has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Aoki has a chance to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Below average
Scoring ability
Wisniewski on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Aoki’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Keith
Wisniewski
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Wisniewski Aoki
Significant Strikes23
Wisniewski's average striking offense won't be a factor against Aoki's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Average
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Wisniewski's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Aoki's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Wisniewski is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Wisniewski is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Wisniewski is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Aoki 9.6
fighter Wisniewski 8.0
Great takedowns by Aoki
2 takedowns Dec 31, 2012 vs McKee
6 takedowns Dec 31, 2011 vs Kitaoka
1 takedown Apr 29, 2008 vs Cavalcante

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Aoki 6.1
fighter Wisniewski 7.3
Great knockouts by Wisniewski
Round 2 Aug 09, 2009 vs Yunker
Round 3 May 14, 2005 vs Alaudinov
Round 3 Dec 06, 2003 vs Santiago

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Aoki 9.9
fighter Wisniewski 7.6
Great submissions by Aoki
Round 2 Dec 31, 2012 vs McKee
Round 1 Jul 10, 2010 vs Kawajiri
Round 1 Dec 31, 2008 vs Alvarez

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Aoki 9.4
fighter Wisniewski 7.9
Fast finishes by Aoki
324 seconds Dec 31, 2012 vs McKee
113 seconds Jul 10, 2010 vs Kawajiri
92 seconds Dec 31, 2008 vs Alvarez
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
team
VS
team
XR1 SUB
R2 SUBX
1,9721,614
1,8841,702
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Aoki
legend Wisniewski
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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