UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Nurmagomedov vs Aoki

2,192

CageRank

WINNER
Aoki

prediction

BY Submission ROUND 2

prediction
59% chance Aoki
WILL WIN

2,254

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Shinya Aoki
Much harder to hit 10.0 vs 8.9 More than 10% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Much better submission offense 9.9 vs 7.8 More than 25% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Fast finishes 9.4 vs 8.4 More than 10% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Significantly better takedown defense 9.7 vs 9.0 Around 10% better at avoiding being taken down
Significantly stronger takedown offense 9.6 vs 9.0 More than 5% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Better submission defense 9.8 vs 9.0 Around 10% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Longer reach 183 cm vs 178 cm Around 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Taller 180 cm vs 178 cm Almost the same
Puts up a fight 9.4 vs 9.1 Around 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Advantages for Khabib Nurmagomedov
Better striker 8.6 vs 7.4 More than 15% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Much heavier hands 7.7 vs 6.1 More than 25% better at knocking out good defenders
Significantly heavier 155 lbs vs 153 lbs Almost the same
Younger 29 years vs 35 years More than 15% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Aoki on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Nurmagomedov’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Shinya
Aoki
In 8:59, how much damage will he do? Aoki Nurmagomedov
Significant Strikes15
Aoki's poor striking offense won't be a factor against Nurmagomedov's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 81 Significant Strikes in 8:59
Poor
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Aoki's excellent takedown offense will dominate Nurmagomedov's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 5 Takedowns in 8:59
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Aoki is unlikely to win by knockout
Weak
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Aoki has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Aoki is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Nurmagomedov on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Aoki’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Khabib
Nurmagomedov
In 8:59, how much damage will he do? Nurmagomedov Aoki
Significant Strikes18
Nurmagomedov's good striking offense won't be a factor against Aoki's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 81 Significant Strikes in 8:59
Good
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Nurmagomedov's good takedown offense won't be a factor against Aoki's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 5 Takedowns in 8:59
Good
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Nurmagomedov is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Nurmagomedov is unlikely to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Nurmagomedov has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Aoki 7.4
fighter Nurmagomedov 8.6
Great striking by Nurmagomedov
54 strikes Sep 21, 2013 vs Healy
22 strikes Jan 19, 2013 vs Tavares
25 strikes Jul 07, 2012 vs Tibau

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Aoki 9.6
fighter Nurmagomedov 9.0
Great takedowns by Aoki
2 takedowns Dec 31, 2012 vs McKee
6 takedowns Dec 31, 2011 vs Kitaoka
1 takedown Apr 29, 2008 vs Cavalcante

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Aoki 6.1
fighter Nurmagomedov 7.7
Great knockouts by Nurmagomedov
Round 1 Jan 19, 2013 vs Tavares
Round 1 Oct 22, 2011 vs Santos
Round 2 Feb 12, 2011 vs Agafonov

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Aoki 9.9
fighter Nurmagomedov 7.8
Great submissions by Aoki
Round 1 Jul 10, 2010 vs Kawajiri
Round 1 Dec 31, 2008 vs Alvarez
Round 1 Aug 26, 2006 vs Black

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Aoki 9.4
fighter Nurmagomedov 8.4
Fast finishes by Aoki
324 seconds Dec 31, 2012 vs McKee
113 seconds Jul 10, 2010 vs Kawajiri
92 seconds Dec 31, 2008 vs Alvarez
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Aoki
legend Nurmagomedov
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
comments powered by Disqus