UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Nurmagomedov vs Chiesa

2,192

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Nurmagomedov

prediction

BY Submission ROUND 3

prediction
80% chance Nurmagomedov
WILL WIN

1,954

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Khabib Nurmagomedov
Much heavier hands 7.7 vs 6.2 Around 25% better at knocking out good defenders
Significantly better striker 8.6 vs 8.1 More than 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Significantly better submission defense 9.0 vs 8.0 More than 10% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Better takedown defense 9.0 vs 8.5 More than 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Puts up a fight 9.1 vs 8.5 More than 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Harder to hit 8.9 vs 8.8 Almost the same
Fast finishes 8.4 vs 8.2 Almost the same
Stronger takedown offense 9.0 vs 8.9 Almost the same
Slightly stronger jaw 8.8 vs 8.6 Almost the same
Advantages for Michael Chiesa
Much longer reach 192 cm vs 178 cm Around 10% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Significantly better submission offense 8.8 vs 7.8 More than 10% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
A lot taller 185 cm vs 178 cm Around 5% taller
Nurmagomedov on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Chiesa’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Khabib
Nurmagomedov
In 10:17, how much damage will he do? Nurmagomedov Chiesa
Significant Strikes46
Nurmagomedov's good striking offense may be a factor against Chiesa's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 93 Significant Strikes in 10:17
Good
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns3
Nurmagomedov's good takedown offense may be a factor against Chiesa's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 10:17
Good
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Nurmagomedov is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Nurmagomedov has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Good
Resistance
Decision
Nurmagomedov has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Chiesa on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Nurmagomedov’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Michael
Chiesa
In 10:17, how much damage will he do? Chiesa Nurmagomedov
Significant Strikes32
Chiesa's average striking offense won't be a factor against Nurmagomedov's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 93 Significant Strikes in 10:17
Average
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Chiesa's good takedown offense is matched by Nurmagomedov's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 10:17
Good
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Chiesa is unlikely to win by knockout
Weak
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Chiesa has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Chiesa is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Nurmagomedov 8.6
fighter Chiesa 8.1
Great striking by Nurmagomedov
54 strikes Sep 21, 2013 vs Healy
22 strikes Jan 19, 2013 vs Tavares
25 strikes Jul 07, 2012 vs Tibau

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Nurmagomedov 9.0
fighter Chiesa 8.9
Great takedowns by Nurmagomedov
5 takedowns Sep 21, 2013 vs Healy
21 takedowns May 25, 2013 vs Trujillo
3 takedowns Jan 20, 2012 vs Shalorus

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Nurmagomedov 7.7
fighter Chiesa 6.2
Great knockouts by Nurmagomedov
Round 1 Jan 19, 2013 vs Tavares
Round 1 Oct 22, 2011 vs Santos
Round 2 Feb 12, 2011 vs Agafonov

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Nurmagomedov 7.8
fighter Chiesa 8.8
Great submissions by Chiesa
Round 2 Nov 06, 2013 vs Smith
Round 2 Feb 23, 2013 vs Kuivanen
Round 1 Jun 01, 2012 vs Iaquinta

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Nurmagomedov 8.4
fighter Chiesa 8.2
Fast finishes by Nurmagomedov
115 seconds Jan 19, 2013 vs Tavares
728 seconds Jan 20, 2012 vs Shalorus
213 seconds Oct 22, 2011 vs Santos
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Nurmagomedov
legend Chiesa
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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