UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Nurmagomedov vs Johnson

2,192

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Nurmagomedov

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
72% chance Nurmagomedov
WILL WIN

2,023

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Khabib Nurmagomedov
Much better submission offense 7.8 vs 6.6 Around 20% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Much stronger takedown offense 9.0 vs 7.8 More than 15% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Significantly fast finishes 8.4 vs 8.0 More than 5% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Harder to hit 8.9 vs 8.6 Around 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Better submission defense 9.0 vs 8.6 More than 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Heavier 155 lbs vs 144 lbs Around 10% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Slightly younger 30 years vs 32 years More than 5% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Advantages for Michael Johnson
Significantly heavier hands 8.3 vs 7.7 More than 5% better at knocking out good defenders
Longer reach 187 cm vs 178 cm Around 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Stronger jaw 9.0 vs 8.8 Almost the same
Nurmagomedov on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Johnson’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Khabib
Nurmagomedov
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Nurmagomedov Johnson
Significant Strikes72
Nurmagomedov's good striking offense may be a factor against Johnson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Good
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns3
Nurmagomedov's good takedown offense is matched by Johnson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Good
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Nurmagomedov is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Nurmagomedov is unlikely to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Nurmagomedov has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Johnson on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Nurmagomedov’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Michael
Johnson
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Johnson Nurmagomedov
Significant Strikes60
Johnson's average striking offense won't be a factor against Nurmagomedov's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Average
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Johnson's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Nurmagomedov's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Johnson has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Johnson is unlikely to win by submission
Below average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Johnson has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Nurmagomedov 8.6
fighter Johnson 8.6
Great striking by Nurmagomedov
54 strikes Sep 21, 2013 vs Healy
22 strikes Jan 19, 2013 vs Tavares
25 strikes Jul 07, 2012 vs Tibau

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Nurmagomedov 9.0
fighter Johnson 7.8
Great takedowns by Nurmagomedov
5 takedowns Sep 21, 2013 vs Healy
21 takedowns May 25, 2013 vs Trujillo
3 takedowns Jan 20, 2012 vs Shalorus

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Nurmagomedov 7.7
fighter Johnson 8.3
Great knockouts by Johnson
Round 2 Dec 28, 2013 vs Tibau
Round 2 Oct 05, 2012 vs Castillo
Round 1 Oct 03, 2009 vs Derrow

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Nurmagomedov 7.8
fighter Johnson 6.6
Great submissions by Nurmagomedov
Round 3 Jan 20, 2012 vs Shalorus
Round 1 Aug 05, 2011 vs Mamedov
Round 1 Nov 03, 2009 vs Shamhalaev

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Nurmagomedov 8.4
fighter Johnson 8.0
Fast finishes by Nurmagomedov
115 seconds Jan 19, 2013 vs Tavares
728 seconds Jan 20, 2012 vs Shalorus
213 seconds Oct 22, 2011 vs Santos
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
November 12, 2016UFC 205
team
VS
team
R3 SUBX
XX
00
00
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Nurmagomedov
legend Johnson
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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