UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Nurmagomedov vs Tavares

2,192

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Nurmagomedov

prediction

BY KO ROUND 3

prediction
79% chance Nurmagomedov
WILL WIN

1,965

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Khabib Nurmagomedov
Much heavier hands 7.7 vs 6.9 More than 10% better at knocking out good defenders
Better striker 8.6 vs 8.0 Around 10% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Significantly stronger jaw 8.8 vs 7.9 More than 10% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Taller 178 cm vs 170 cm Around 5% taller
Fast finishes 8.4 vs 8.2 Around 5% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Harder to hit 8.9 vs 8.7 Almost the same
Puts up a fight 9.1 vs 8.8 Around 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Younger 29 years vs 33 years More than 10% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Heavier 155 lbs vs 144 lbs Around 10% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Advantages for Thiago Tavares
Significantly better submission offense 8.3 vs 7.8 More than 5% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Better takedown defense 9.2 vs 9.0 Around 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Better submission defense 9.2 vs 9.0 Almost the same
Nurmagomedov on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Tavares’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Khabib
Nurmagomedov
In 11:14, how much damage will he do? Nurmagomedov Tavares
Significant Strikes52
Nurmagomedov's good striking offense may be a factor against Tavares's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 101 Significant Strikes in 11:14
Good
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Nurmagomedov's good takedown offense won't be a factor against Tavares's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 11:14
Good
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Nurmagomedov has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Good
Jaw
Submission
Nurmagomedov is unlikely to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Nurmagomedov has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Tavares on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Nurmagomedov’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Thiago
Tavares
In 11:14, how much damage will he do? Tavares Nurmagomedov
Significant Strikes31
Tavares's below average striking offense won't be a factor against Nurmagomedov's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 101 Significant Strikes in 11:14
Below average
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Tavares's good takedown offense is matched by Nurmagomedov's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 11:14
Good
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Tavares is unlikely to win by knockout
Below average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Tavares has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Tavares is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Nurmagomedov 8.6
fighter Tavares 8.0
Great striking by Nurmagomedov
54 strikes Sep 21, 2013 vs Healy
22 strikes Jan 19, 2013 vs Tavares
25 strikes Jul 07, 2012 vs Tibau

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Nurmagomedov 9.0
fighter Tavares 9.1
Great takedowns by Tavares
1 takedown Nov 09, 2013 vs Salas
2 takedowns Jan 14, 2012 vs Stout
2 takedowns Jun 12, 2007 vs Black

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Nurmagomedov 7.7
fighter Tavares 6.9
Great knockouts by Nurmagomedov
Round 1 Jan 19, 2013 vs Tavares
Round 1 Oct 22, 2011 vs Santos
Round 2 Feb 12, 2011 vs Agafonov

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Nurmagomedov 7.8
fighter Tavares 8.3
Great submissions by Tavares
Round 1 Nov 09, 2013 vs Salas
Round 2 Jun 12, 2007 vs Black
Round 3 Mar 05, 2006 vs Weichel

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Nurmagomedov 8.4
fighter Tavares 8.2
Fast finishes by Nurmagomedov
115 seconds Jan 19, 2013 vs Tavares
728 seconds Jan 20, 2012 vs Shalorus
213 seconds Oct 22, 2011 vs Santos
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
January 19, 2013UFC on FX 7
team
VS
team
R1 KOX
R1 KOX
2,0241,953
2,0641,913
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Nurmagomedov
legend Tavares
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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