UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Nurmagomedov vs Diaz

2,192

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Nurmagomedov

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
69% chance Nurmagomedov
WILL WIN

2,056

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Khabib Nurmagomedov
Much stronger takedown offense 9.0 vs 7.8 More than 15% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Much better takedown defense 9.0 vs 7.9 Around 15% better at avoiding being taken down
Harder to hit 8.9 vs 8.7 Almost the same
Heavier hands 7.7 vs 7.4 Around 5% better at knocking out good defenders
Younger 29 years vs 32 years Around 10% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Advantages for Nate Diaz
Much longer reach 193 cm vs 178 cm Around 10% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Better striker 9.3 vs 8.6 More than 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Significantly better submission offense 8.6 vs 7.8 More than 10% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Taller 183 cm vs 178 cm Around 5% taller
Fast finishes 8.7 vs 8.4 Around 5% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Puts up a fight 9.5 vs 9.1 Around 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Better submission defense 9.4 vs 9.0 Around 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Nurmagomedov on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Diaz’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Khabib
Nurmagomedov
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Nurmagomedov Diaz
Significant Strikes68
Nurmagomedov's good striking offense may be a factor against Diaz's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Good
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns5
Nurmagomedov's good takedown offense may be a factor against Diaz's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Good
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Nurmagomedov is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Nurmagomedov is unlikely to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Nurmagomedov has a good chance of winning by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
Diaz on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Nurmagomedov’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Nate
Diaz
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Diaz Nurmagomedov
Significant Strikes84
Diaz's excellent striking offense will dominate Nurmagomedov's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Excellent
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Diaz's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Nurmagomedov's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Diaz is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Diaz has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Diaz is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Nurmagomedov 8.6
fighter Diaz 9.3
Great striking by Diaz
33 strikes Nov 30, 2013 vs Maynard
46 strikes May 05, 2012 vs Miller
238 strikes Dec 30, 2011 vs Cerrone

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Nurmagomedov 9.0
fighter Diaz 7.8
Great takedowns by Nurmagomedov
5 takedowns Sep 21, 2013 vs Healy
21 takedowns May 25, 2013 vs Trujillo
3 takedowns Jan 20, 2012 vs Shalorus

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Nurmagomedov 7.7
fighter Diaz 7.4
Great knockouts by Nurmagomedov
Round 1 Jan 19, 2013 vs Tavares
Round 1 Oct 22, 2011 vs Santos
Round 2 Feb 12, 2011 vs Agafonov

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Nurmagomedov 7.8
fighter Diaz 8.6
Great submissions by Diaz
Round 2 May 05, 2012 vs Miller
Round 1 Sep 24, 2011 vs Gomi
Round 3 Aug 28, 2010 vs Davis

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Nurmagomedov 8.4
fighter Diaz 8.7
Fast finishes by Diaz
158 seconds Nov 30, 2013 vs Maynard
549 seconds May 05, 2012 vs Miller
267 seconds Sep 24, 2011 vs Gomi
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Nurmagomedov
legend Diaz
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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