UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Nurmagomedov vs Rockhold

2,192

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Nurmagomedov

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
62% chance Nurmagomedov
WILL WIN

2,108

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Khabib Nurmagomedov
Much stronger takedown offense 9.0 vs 7.4 More than 20% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Stronger jaw 8.8 vs 8.4 Around 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Puts up a fight 9.1 vs 8.7 Around 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Younger 30 years vs 34 years More than 10% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Better submission defense 9.0 vs 8.7 Around 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Better takedown defense 9.0 vs 8.8 Almost the same
Advantages for Luke Rockhold
Fast finishes 9.5 vs 8.4 More than 10% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Much better submission offense 8.6 vs 7.8 Around 10% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Significantly longer reach 196 cm vs 178 cm 10% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Significantly better striker 9.1 vs 8.6 Around 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
A lot taller 191 cm vs 178 cm More than 5% taller
Heavier 184 lbs vs 155 lbs Around 20% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Heavier hands 7.9 vs 7.7 Around 5% better at knocking out good defenders
Harder to hit 9.0 vs 8.9 Almost the same
Nurmagomedov on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Rockhold’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Khabib
Nurmagomedov
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Nurmagomedov Rockhold
Significant Strikes58
Nurmagomedov's good striking offense is matched by Rockhold's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Good
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns3
Nurmagomedov's good takedown offense is matched by Rockhold's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Good
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Nurmagomedov is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Nurmagomedov is unlikely to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Nurmagomedov has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Rockhold on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Nurmagomedov’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Luke
Rockhold
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Rockhold Nurmagomedov
Significant Strikes77
Rockhold's excellent striking offense will dominate Nurmagomedov's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Excellent
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Rockhold's poor takedown offense won't be a factor against Nurmagomedov's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Poor
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Rockhold is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Rockhold has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Rockhold is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Nurmagomedov 8.6
fighter Rockhold 9.1
Great striking by Rockhold
12 strikes Jan 15, 2014 vs Philippou
60 strikes Jul 14, 2012 vs Kennedy
97 strikes Sep 10, 2011 vs Souza

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Nurmagomedov 9.0
fighter Rockhold 7.4
Great takedowns by Nurmagomedov
5 takedowns Sep 21, 2013 vs Healy
21 takedowns May 25, 2013 vs Trujillo
3 takedowns Jan 20, 2012 vs Shalorus

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Nurmagomedov 7.7
fighter Rockhold 7.9
Great knockouts by Rockhold
Round 1 Jan 15, 2014 vs Philippou
Round 1 Jan 07, 2012 vs Jardine
Round 1 Feb 26, 2010 vs Bradley

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Nurmagomedov 7.8
fighter Rockhold 8.6
Great submissions by Rockhold
Round 1 Nov 06, 2009 vs Taylor
Round 1 Jun 19, 2009 vs Devela
Round 1 Nov 21, 2008 vs Theotikos

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Nurmagomedov 8.4
fighter Rockhold 9.5
Fast finishes by Rockhold
151 seconds Jan 15, 2014 vs Philippou
266 seconds Jan 07, 2012 vs Jardine
30 seconds Jun 19, 2009 vs Devela
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Nurmagomedov
legend Rockhold
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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