UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Cormier vs Rua

2,234

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Cormier

prediction

BY Submission ROUND 3

prediction
77% chance Cormier
WILL WIN

2,020

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Daniel Cormier
Much better takedown defense 9.6 vs 8.1 Around 20% better at avoiding being taken down
Much better submission offense 8.0 vs 6.5 Around 25% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Stronger jaw 9.3 vs 8.9 More than 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Better submission defense 8.8 vs 8.4 More than 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Puts up a fight 9.5 vs 9.1 Around 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Slightly stronger takedown offense 8.5 vs 8.3 Almost the same
Advantages for Mauricio Rua
Significantly heavier hands 9.3 vs 8.5 More than 10% better at knocking out good defenders
Longer reach 193 cm vs 184 cm Around 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Taller 185 cm vs 180 cm Around 5% taller
Harder to hit 9.4 vs 9.1 Around 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Slightly younger 36 years vs 38 years More than 5% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Cormier on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Rua’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Daniel
Cormier
In 11:24, how much damage will he do? Cormier Rua
Significant Strikes50
Cormier's excellent striking offense is matched by Rua's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 103 Significant Strikes in 11:24
Excellent
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns3
Cormier's average takedown offense is matched by Rua's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 11:24
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Cormier has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Cormier has a good chance of winning by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Good
Resistance
Decision
Cormier is unlikely to win by decision
Good
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Rua on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Cormier’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Mauricio
Rua
In 11:24, how much damage will he do? Rua Cormier
Significant Strikes59
Rua's excellent striking offense will dominate Cormier's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 103 Significant Strikes in 11:24
Excellent
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Rua's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Cormier's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 11:24
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Rua has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Rua is unlikely to win by submission
Poor
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Rua is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Cormier 9.2
fighter Rua 9.3
Great striking by Rua
16 strikes Aug 27, 2011 vs Griffin
17 strikes May 08, 2010 vs Machida
48 strikes Apr 23, 2005 vs Jackson

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Cormier 8.5
fighter Rua 8.3
Great takedowns by Cormier
3 takedowns Oct 19, 2013 vs Nelson
4 takedowns Jan 12, 2013 vs Staring
4 takedowns May 19, 2012 vs Barnett

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Cormier 8.5
fighter Rua 9.3
Great knockouts by Rua
Round 1 Aug 27, 2011 vs Griffin
Round 1 May 08, 2010 vs Machida
Round 1 Apr 18, 2009 vs Liddell

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Cormier 8.0
fighter Rua 6.5
Great submissions by Cormier
Round 1 Nov 05, 2010 vs Palelei
Round 1 Aug 21, 2010 vs Riley
Round 1 Aug 13, 2010 vs Johnson

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Cormier 8.7
fighter Rua 8.8
Fast finishes by Rua
113 seconds Aug 27, 2011 vs Griffin
215 seconds May 08, 2010 vs Machida
268 seconds Apr 18, 2009 vs Liddell
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Cormier
legend Rua
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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