UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Cormier vs Bader

2,234

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Cormier

prediction

BY KO ROUND 3

prediction
72% chance Cormier
WILL WIN

2,073

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Daniel Cormier
Significantly better striker 9.2 vs 8.7 More than 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Significantly heavier hands 8.5 vs 7.6 More than 10% better at knocking out good defenders
Significantly fast finishes 8.7 vs 8.1 Around 10% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Better submission offense 8.0 vs 7.3 Around 10% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Puts up a fight 9.5 vs 8.8 More than 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Stronger jaw 9.3 vs 8.8 More than 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Better takedown defense 9.6 vs 9.2 Around 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Better submission defense 8.8 vs 8.5 Around 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Longer winning streak 4 fights vs 3 fights Around 35% longer winning streak; has momentum coming into a fight
Advantages for Ryan Bader
A lot taller 188 cm vs 180 cm Around 5% taller
Harder to hit 9.4 vs 9.1 Around 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Younger 34 years vs 38 years More than 10% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Stronger takedown offense 8.7 vs 8.5 Around 5% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Longer reach 188 cm vs 184 cm Almost the same
Cormier on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Bader’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Daniel
Cormier
In 10:19, how much damage will he do? Cormier Bader
Significant Strikes44
Cormier's excellent striking offense is matched by Bader's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 93 Significant Strikes in 10:19
Excellent
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Cormier's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Bader's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 10:19
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Cormier has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Cormier has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Cormier is unlikely to win by decision
Good
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Bader on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Cormier’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Ryan
Bader
In 10:19, how much damage will he do? Bader Cormier
Significant Strikes41
Bader's good striking offense is matched by Cormier's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 93 Significant Strikes in 10:19
Good
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Bader's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Cormier's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 10:19
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Bader is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Bader is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Bader has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Cormier 9.2
fighter Bader 8.7
Great striking by Cormier
84 strikes May 19, 2012 vs Barnett
15 strikes Sep 10, 2011 vs Silva
86 strikes Jun 18, 2011 vs Monson

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Cormier 8.5
fighter Bader 8.7
Great takedowns by Bader
3 takedowns Dec 07, 2013 vs Perosh
4 takedowns Feb 26, 2012 vs Jackson
5 takedowns Sep 25, 2010 vs Rogerio Nogueira

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Cormier 8.5
fighter Bader 7.6
Great knockouts by Cormier
Round 2 Jan 12, 2013 vs Staring
Round 1 Sep 10, 2011 vs Silva
Round 1 Jul 31, 2010 vs Browne

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Cormier 8.0
fighter Bader 7.4
Great submissions by Cormier
Round 1 Nov 05, 2010 vs Palelei
Round 1 Aug 21, 2010 vs Riley
Round 1 Aug 13, 2010 vs Johnson

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Cormier 8.7
fighter Bader 8.1
Fast finishes by Cormier
542 seconds Jan 12, 2013 vs Staring
236 seconds Sep 10, 2011 vs Silva
62 seconds Aug 21, 2010 vs Riley
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Cormier
legend Bader
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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