UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Cormier vs Nelson

2,234

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Cormier

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
80% chance Cormier
WILL WIN

1,990

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Daniel Cormier
Much better submission offense 8.0 vs 6.7 Around 20% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Better striker 9.2 vs 8.4 Around 10% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Much harder to hit 9.1 vs 8.3 Around 10% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Much stronger takedown offense 8.5 vs 7.6 More than 10% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Significantly better takedown defense 9.6 vs 8.8 Around 10% better at avoiding being taken down
Younger 37 years vs 40 years Around 10% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Advantages for Roy Nelson
Much heavier hands 9.4 vs 8.5 More than 10% better at knocking out good defenders
Significantly heavier 248 lbs vs 205 lbs More than 20% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Significantly fast finishes 9.2 vs 8.7 More than 5% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Better submission defense 9.4 vs 8.8 More than 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Puts up a fight 9.8 vs 9.5 Around 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Stronger jaw 9.6 vs 9.3 Almost the same
Slightly taller 183 cm vs 180 cm Almost the same
Cormier on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Nelson’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Daniel
Cormier
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Cormier Nelson
Significant Strikes100
Cormier's excellent striking offense will dominate Nelson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Excellent
Striking
vs
Below average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Cormier's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Nelson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Cormier has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Cormier has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Cormier has a chance to win by decision
Good
Scoring ability
vs
Average
Scoring ability
Nelson on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Cormier’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Roy
Nelson
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Nelson Cormier
Significant Strikes47
Nelson's average striking offense won't be a factor against Cormier's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Average
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns0
Nelson's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Cormier's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Nelson has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Nelson is unlikely to win by submission
Below average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Nelson is unlikely to win by decision
Poor
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Cormier 9.2
fighter Nelson 8.4
Great striking by Cormier
84 strikes May 19, 2012 vs Barnett
15 strikes Sep 10, 2011 vs Silva
86 strikes Jun 18, 2011 vs Monson

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Cormier 8.5
fighter Nelson 7.6
Great takedowns by Cormier
3 takedowns Oct 19, 2013 vs Nelson
4 takedowns Jan 12, 2013 vs Staring
4 takedowns May 19, 2012 vs Barnett

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Cormier 8.5
fighter Nelson 9.4
Great knockouts by Nelson
Round 1 Apr 27, 2013 vs Kongo
Round 1 May 26, 2012 vs Herman
Round 1 Mar 31, 2010 vs Struve

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Cormier 8.0
fighter Nelson 6.7
Great submissions by Cormier
Round 1 Nov 05, 2010 vs Palelei
Round 1 Aug 21, 2010 vs Riley
Round 1 Aug 13, 2010 vs Johnson

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Cormier 8.7
fighter Nelson 9.2
Fast finishes by Nelson
123 seconds Apr 27, 2013 vs Kongo
51 seconds May 26, 2012 vs Herman
39 seconds Mar 31, 2010 vs Struve
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
October 19, 2013UFC 166
team
VS
team
R3 DECX
DECX
2,1651,951
2,1881,928
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Cormier
legend Nelson
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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