UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Beerbohm vs Aoki

1,980

CageRank

WINNER
Aoki

prediction

BY Submission ROUND 2

prediction
83% chance Aoki
WILL WIN

2,254

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Shinya Aoki
Much better submission offense 9.9 vs 8.4 More than 15% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Much harder to hit 10.0 vs 8.7 Around 15% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Much better takedown defense 9.7 vs 8.0 More than 20% better at avoiding being taken down
Fast finishes 9.4 vs 8.5 More than 10% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Much stronger takedown offense 9.6 vs 8.5 Around 15% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Significantly better submission defense 9.8 vs 9.1 More than 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Longer reach 183 cm vs 173 cm More than 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Younger 33 years vs 38 years Around 15% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Puts up a fight 9.4 vs 9.2 Almost the same
Slightly taller 180 cm vs 178 cm Almost the same
Advantages for Lyle Beerbohm
Much heavier hands 7.3 vs 6.1 Around 20% better at knocking out good defenders
Better striker 8.2 vs 7.4 More than 10% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Heavier 184 lbs vs 153 lbs More than 20% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Slightly stronger jaw 9.0 vs 8.9 Almost the same
Aoki on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Beerbohm’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Shinya
Aoki
In 9:21, how much damage will he do? Aoki Beerbohm
Significant Strikes18
Aoki's poor striking offense won't be a factor against Beerbohm's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 84 Significant Strikes in 9:21
Poor
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns4
Aoki's excellent takedown offense will dominate Beerbohm's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 5 Takedowns in 9:21
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Aoki is unlikely to win by knockout
Weak
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Aoki has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Aoki is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Beerbohm on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Aoki’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Lyle
Beerbohm
In 9:21, how much damage will he do? Beerbohm Aoki
Significant Strikes13
Beerbohm's average striking offense won't be a factor against Aoki's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 84 Significant Strikes in 9:21
Average
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Beerbohm's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Aoki's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 5 Takedowns in 9:21
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Beerbohm is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Beerbohm has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Beerbohm is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Aoki 7.4
fighter Beerbohm 8.2
Great striking by Beerbohm
37 strikes May 15, 2010 vs Ribeiro
27 strikes Feb 23, 2008 vs Perales

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Aoki 9.6
fighter Beerbohm 8.5
Great takedowns by Aoki
2 takedowns Dec 31, 2012 vs McKee
6 takedowns Dec 31, 2011 vs Kitaoka
1 takedown Apr 29, 2008 vs Cavalcante

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Aoki 6.1
fighter Beerbohm 7.3
Great knockouts by Beerbohm
Round 1 Jul 20, 2013 vs Estrada
Round 1 Sep 12, 2009 vs Martin
Round 1 Oct 10, 2008 vs Oliveira

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Aoki 9.9
fighter Beerbohm 8.4
Great submissions by Aoki
Round 2 Dec 31, 2012 vs McKee
Round 1 Jul 10, 2010 vs Kawajiri
Round 1 Dec 31, 2008 vs Alvarez

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Aoki 9.4
fighter Beerbohm 8.5
Fast finishes by Aoki
324 seconds Dec 31, 2012 vs McKee
113 seconds Jul 10, 2010 vs Kawajiri
92 seconds Dec 31, 2008 vs Alvarez
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
team
VS
team
XR1 SUB
XR2 SUB
1,9502,185
1,9302,206
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Aoki
legend Beerbohm
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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