UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Hurley vs Diaz

1,585

CageRank

WINNER
Diaz

prediction

BY Submission ROUND 2

prediction
96% chance Diaz
WILL WIN

2,151

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Nick Diaz
Better striker 9.7 vs 8.1 More than 20% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Much heavier hands 8.4 vs 6.5 More than 30% better at knocking out good defenders
Fast finishes 8.7 vs 7.4 More than 15% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Much better submission defense 9.5 vs 7.7 Around 25% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Puts up a fight 9.9 vs 8.0 Around 25% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Much better takedown defense 8.8 vs 7.5 More than 15% better at avoiding being taken down
Much stronger jaw 9.8 vs 8.7 Around 15% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Significantly better submission offense 8.0 vs 7.4 Around 10% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
A lot taller 185 cm vs 173 cm More than 5% taller
Younger 34 years vs 39 years Around 15% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Heavier 169 lbs vs 155 lbs Around 10% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Advantages for Joe Hurley
Stronger takedown offense 8.0 vs 7.6 More than 5% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Harder to hit 8.5 vs 8.4 Almost the same
Diaz on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Hurley’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Nick
Diaz
In 6:54, how much damage will he do? Diaz Hurley
Significant Strikes50
Diaz's excellent striking offense will dominate Hurley's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 62 Significant Strikes in 6:54
Excellent
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Diaz's below average takedown offense is matched by Hurley's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 4 Takedowns in 6:54
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Below average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Diaz has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Diaz has a very good chance of winning by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Average
Resistance
Decision
Diaz is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
Hurley on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Diaz’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Joe
Hurley
In 6:54, how much damage will he do? Hurley Diaz
Significant Strikes28
Hurley's average striking offense is matched by Diaz's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 62 Significant Strikes in 6:54
Average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Hurley's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Diaz's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 4 Takedowns in 6:54
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Hurley is unlikely to win by knockout
Weak
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Hurley is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Hurley is unlikely to win by decision
Poor
Scoring ability
vs
Average
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Diaz 9.7
fighter Hurley 8.1
Great striking by Diaz
178 strikes Oct 29, 2011 vs Penn
44 strikes Apr 09, 2011 vs Daley
13 strikes Feb 05, 2005 vs Fickett

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Diaz 8.4
fighter Hurley 6.5
Great knockouts by Diaz
Round 1 Apr 09, 2011 vs Daley
Round 1 Jan 30, 2010 vs Zaromskis
Round 1 Feb 05, 2005 vs Fickett

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Diaz 8.0
fighter Hurley 7.4
Great submissions by Diaz
Round 1 May 29, 2010 vs Sakurai
Round 3 Jun 06, 2009 vs Smith
Round 3 Aug 26, 2006 vs Neer

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Diaz 8.7
fighter Hurley 7.5
Fast finishes by Diaz
297 seconds Apr 09, 2011 vs Daley
278 seconds Jan 30, 2010 vs Zaromskis
280 seconds Feb 05, 2005 vs Fickett
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
March 27, 2003WEC 6
team
VS
team
XR1 SUB
R1 SUBX
1,7121,605
1,6471,670
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Diaz
legend Hurley
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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