UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Lesnar vs Jones

1,820

CageRank

WINNER
Jones

prediction

BY KO ROUND 2

prediction
96% chance Jones
WILL WIN

2,377

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Jon Jones
Much stronger jaw 9.7 vs 7.8 Around 25% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Puts up a fight 9.6 vs 8.1 Around 20% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Much heavier hands 8.5 vs 7.7 More than 10% better at knocking out good defenders
Much harder to hit 9.6 vs 8.9 Around 10% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Better striker 9.6 vs 8.9 Around 10% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Fast finishes 8.9 vs 8.2 Around 10% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Much better takedown defense 9.9 vs 8.9 More than 10% better at avoiding being taken down
Significantly younger 29 years vs 39 years More than 25% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Better submission defense 8.8 vs 8.2 More than 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Better submission offense 8.2 vs 7.8 More than 5% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Longer reach 215 cm vs 206 cm Around 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Taller 193 cm vs 191 cm Almost the same
Slightly stronger takedown offense 9.4 vs 9.3 Almost the same
Advantages for Brock Lesnar
Significantly heavier 264 lbs vs 205 lbs Around 30% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Jones on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Lesnar’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Jon
Jones
In 6:16, how much damage will he do? Jones Lesnar
Significant Strikes40
Jones's excellent striking offense will dominate Lesnar's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 56 Significant Strikes in 6:16
Excellent
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Jones's excellent takedown offense will dominate Lesnar's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 3 Takedowns in 6:16
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Jones has a very good chance of winning by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Average
Jaw
Submission
Jones has a good chance of winning by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Good
Resistance
Decision
Jones has a good chance of winning by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
Lesnar on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Jones’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Brock
Lesnar
In 6:16, how much damage will he do? Lesnar Jones
Significant Strikes20
Lesnar's good striking offense won't be a factor against Jones's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 56 Significant Strikes in 6:16
Good
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Lesnar's excellent takedown offense is matched by Jones's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 3 Takedowns in 6:16
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Lesnar is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Lesnar is unlikely to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Lesnar is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Jones 9.6
fighter Lesnar 8.9
Great striking by Jones
20 strikes Apr 27, 2013 vs Sonnen
105 strikes Apr 21, 2012 vs Evans
61 strikes Sep 24, 2011 vs Jackson

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Jones 9.4
fighter Lesnar 9.3
Great takedowns by Jones
3 takedowns Apr 27, 2013 vs Sonnen
1 takedown Apr 21, 2012 vs Evans
2 takedowns Sep 24, 2011 vs Jackson

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Jones 8.6
fighter Lesnar 7.7
Great knockouts by Jones
Round 1 Apr 27, 2013 vs Sonnen
Round 3 Mar 19, 2011 vs Rua
Round 1 Aug 01, 2010 vs Matyushenko

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Jones 8.2
fighter Lesnar 7.8
Great submissions by Jones
Round 4 Sep 22, 2012 vs Belfort
Round 2 Dec 10, 2011 vs Machida
Round 4 Sep 24, 2011 vs Jackson

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Jones 8.9
fighter Lesnar 8.2
Fast finishes by Jones
273 seconds Apr 27, 2013 vs Sonnen
974 seconds Sep 24, 2011 vs Jackson
757 seconds Mar 19, 2011 vs Rua
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Jones
legend Lesnar
Read More
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Fantasy Cage Match
Jones vs McGregor
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Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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