UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Lesnar vs St. Pierre

1,820

CageRank

WINNER
St. Pierre

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
97% chance St. Pierre
WILL WIN

2,455

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Georges St. Pierre
Much stronger jaw 9.4 vs 7.8 More than 20% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Puts up a fight 9.7 vs 8.1 Around 20% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Much harder to hit 9.7 vs 8.9 Around 10% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Much better submission defense 9.5 vs 8.2 More than 15% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Much better takedown defense 10.0 vs 8.9 More than 10% better at avoiding being taken down
Significantly stronger takedown offense 10.0 vs 9.3 More than 5% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Significantly heavier hands 8.2 vs 7.7 More than 5% better at knocking out good defenders
Significantly better striker 9.3 vs 8.9 Around 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Younger 36 years vs 39 years Around 10% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Advantages for Brock Lesnar
Much heavier 264 lbs vs 169 lbs More than 55% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
A lot taller 191 cm vs 178 cm More than 5% taller
Significantly longer reach 206 cm vs 193 cm More than 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Better submission offense 7.8 vs 7.6 Around 5% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
St. Pierre on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Lesnar’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Georges
St. Pierre
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? St. Pierre Lesnar
Significant Strikes85
St. Pierre's excellent striking offense will dominate Lesnar's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Excellent
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns5
St. Pierre's excellent takedown offense will dominate Lesnar's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
St. Pierre has a very good chance of winning by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Average
Jaw
Submission
St. Pierre is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Good
Resistance
Decision
St. Pierre has a good chance of winning by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
Lesnar on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against St. Pierre’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Brock
Lesnar
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Lesnar St. Pierre
Significant Strikes45
Lesnar's good striking offense won't be a factor against St. Pierre's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Good
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Lesnar's excellent takedown offense is matched by St. Pierre's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Lesnar is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Lesnar is unlikely to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Lesnar is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter St. Pierre 9.3
fighter Lesnar 8.9
Great striking by St. Pierre
101 strikes Nov 16, 2013 vs Hendricks
85 strikes Apr 30, 2011 vs Shields
45 strikes Nov 18, 2006 vs Hughes

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter St. Pierre 10.0
fighter Lesnar 9.3
Great takedowns by St. Pierre
3 takedowns Nov 16, 2013 vs Hendricks
7 takedowns Nov 17, 2012 vs Condit
2 takedowns Apr 30, 2011 vs Shields

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter St. Pierre 8.2
fighter Lesnar 7.7
Great knockouts by St. Pierre
Round 4 Jan 31, 2009 vs Penn
Round 2 Nov 18, 2006 vs Hughes
Round 2 Nov 19, 2005 vs Sherk

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter St. Pierre 7.6
fighter Lesnar 7.8
Great submissions by Lesnar
Round 2 Jul 03, 2010 vs Carwin
Round 1 Jun 02, 2007 vs Soo Kim

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter St. Pierre 8.3
fighter Lesnar 8.2
Fast finishes by St. Pierre
594 seconds Dec 29, 2007 vs Hughes
385 seconds Nov 18, 2006 vs Hughes
473 seconds Nov 19, 2005 vs Sherk
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend St. Pierre
legend Lesnar
Read More
Lesnar vs McGregor
Fantasy Cage Match
St. Pierre vs McGregor
Fantasy Cage Match
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
Showing 3 comments.
This site is a fugging joke.
Yeah, the prediction system is based solely on our ratings, and those ratings are based solely on performance in past fights. In these cross weight class comparisons you sometimes get "interesting" (or crazy) results since there are no (or few) common opponents between the fighters. Still an interesting fight to consider. GSP is *really* good at avoiding takedowns, so imo there's a slim chance he could avoid Lesnar... Your assessment is probably more likely though. Thanks for the comment.
? as much as I love st-pierre... he wouldn't stand a chance against lesnar are we kidding here? st-pierre is giving up almost 110 pounds! AND barely any speed... there would be no avoiding a lesnar double... st-pierre's only chance is a ground game mistake for a sub... if not... he gets liquified on the mat...
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