UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Lesnar vs Johnson

1,820

CageRank

WINNER
Johnson

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
90% chance Johnson
WILL WIN

2,200

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Demetrious Johnson
Much stronger jaw 9.2 vs 7.8 Around 20% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Puts up a fight 9.3 vs 8.1 Around 15% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Significantly better submission defense 9.2 vs 8.2 More than 10% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Significantly younger 31 years vs 40 years Around 25% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Harder to hit 9.2 vs 8.9 Around 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Advantages for Brock Lesnar
Much heavier 264 lbs vs 125 lbs More than 2x heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Much longer reach 206 cm vs 168 cm Around 25% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Much taller 191 cm vs 160 cm Around 20% taller
Significantly fast finishes 8.2 vs 7.7 More than 5% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Significantly heavier hands 7.7 vs 7.2 More than 5% better at knocking out good defenders
Better takedown defense 8.9 vs 8.6 Around 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Better striker 8.9 vs 8.7 Almost the same
Stronger takedown offense 9.3 vs 9.2 Almost the same
Johnson on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Lesnar’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Demetrious
Johnson
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Johnson Lesnar
Significant Strikes67
Johnson's good striking offense is matched by Lesnar's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Good
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns3
Johnson's excellent takedown offense will dominate Lesnar's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Johnson has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Average
Jaw
Submission
Johnson has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Good
Resistance
Decision
Johnson has a good chance of winning by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
Lesnar on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Johnson’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Brock
Lesnar
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Lesnar Johnson
Significant Strikes63
Lesnar's good striking offense is matched by Johnson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Good
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns4
Lesnar's excellent takedown offense will dominate Johnson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Lesnar is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Lesnar is unlikely to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Lesnar is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Johnson 8.7
fighter Lesnar 8.9
Great striking by Lesnar
8 strikes Jul 03, 2010 vs Carwin
47 strikes Jul 11, 2009 vs Mir
31 strikes Nov 15, 2008 vs Couture

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Johnson 9.2
fighter Lesnar 9.3
Great takedowns by Lesnar
1 takedown Jul 03, 2010 vs Carwin
1 takedown Jul 11, 2009 vs Mir
2 takedowns Nov 15, 2008 vs Couture

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Johnson 7.2
fighter Lesnar 7.7
Great knockouts by Lesnar
Round 2 Jul 11, 2009 vs Mir
Round 2 Nov 15, 2008 vs Couture

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Johnson 7.9
fighter Lesnar 7.8
Great submissions by Johnson
Round 5 Jul 27, 2013 vs Moraga
Round 3 Nov 11, 2010 vs Page
Round 2 Aug 16, 2008 vs Garza

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Johnson 7.7
fighter Lesnar 8.2
Fast finishes by Lesnar
439 seconds Jul 03, 2010 vs Carwin
408 seconds Jul 11, 2009 vs Mir
487 seconds Nov 15, 2008 vs Couture
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Johnson
legend Lesnar
Read More
Lesnar vs McGregor
Fantasy Cage Match
Johnson vs Jones
Fantasy Cage Match
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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