UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Lesnar vs Struve

1,820

CageRank

WINNER
Struve

prediction

BY KO ROUND 2

prediction
73% chance Struve
WILL WIN

1,990

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Stefan Struve
Much taller 213 cm vs 191 cm More than 10% taller
Significantly stronger jaw 8.8 vs 7.8 Around 15% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Significantly younger 29 years vs 40 years Around 30% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Puts up a fight 9.0 vs 8.1 More than 10% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Longer reach 215 cm vs 206 cm Around 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Better submission defense 8.8 vs 8.2 Around 10% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Fast finishes 8.8 vs 8.2 More than 5% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Heavier hands 8.1 vs 7.7 Around 5% better at knocking out good defenders
Advantages for Brock Lesnar
Much stronger takedown offense 9.3 vs 7.3 Around 30% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Significantly harder to hit 8.9 vs 8.2 Around 10% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Significantly better striker 8.9 vs 8.4 More than 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Better takedown defense 8.9 vs 8.5 More than 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Struve on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Lesnar’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Stefan
Struve
In 7:01, how much damage will he do? Struve Lesnar
Significant Strikes25
Struve's average striking offense won't be a factor against Lesnar's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 63 Significant Strikes in 7:01
Average
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns0
Struve's poor takedown offense won't be a factor against Lesnar's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 4 Takedowns in 7:01
Poor
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Struve has a very good chance of winning by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Average
Jaw
Submission
Struve has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Good
Resistance
Decision
Struve is unlikely to win by decision
Poor
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
Lesnar on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Struve’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Brock
Lesnar
In 7:01, how much damage will he do? Lesnar Struve
Significant Strikes44
Lesnar's good striking offense may be a factor against Struve's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 63 Significant Strikes in 7:01
Good
Striking
vs
Below average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Lesnar's excellent takedown offense will dominate Struve's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 4 Takedowns in 7:01
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Lesnar is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Lesnar is unlikely to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Lesnar is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Struve 8.4
fighter Lesnar 8.9
Great striking by Lesnar
8 strikes Jul 03, 2010 vs Carwin
47 strikes Jul 11, 2009 vs Mir
31 strikes Nov 15, 2008 vs Couture

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Struve 7.3
fighter Lesnar 9.3
Great takedowns by Lesnar
1 takedown Jul 03, 2010 vs Carwin
1 takedown Jul 11, 2009 vs Mir
2 takedowns Nov 15, 2008 vs Couture

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Struve 8.1
fighter Lesnar 7.7
Great knockouts by Struve
Round 2 Sep 29, 2012 vs Miocic
Round 2 Feb 15, 2012 vs Herman
Round 1 Dec 11, 2010 vs McCorkle

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Struve 8.0
fighter Lesnar 7.8
Great submissions by Struve
Round 1 May 26, 2012 vs Johnson
Round 2 Oct 01, 2011 vs Barry
Round 1 Oct 24, 2009 vs Gormley

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Struve 8.8
fighter Lesnar 8.2
Fast finishes by Struve
530 seconds Sep 29, 2012 vs Miocic
65 seconds May 26, 2012 vs Johnson
532 seconds Feb 15, 2012 vs Herman
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Struve
legend Lesnar
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
comments powered by Disqus