UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Lesnar vs Diaz

1,820

CageRank

WINNER
Diaz

prediction

BY Submission ROUND 2

prediction
80% chance Diaz
WILL WIN

2,056

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Nate Diaz
Puts up a fight 9.5 vs 8.1 More than 15% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Much better submission offense 8.6 vs 7.8 More than 10% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Much better submission defense 9.4 vs 8.2 More than 15% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Much stronger jaw 8.9 vs 7.8 Around 15% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Significantly fast finishes 8.7 vs 8.2 More than 5% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Better striker 9.3 vs 8.9 Around 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Younger 33 years vs 41 years Around 20% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Advantages for Brock Lesnar
Much stronger takedown offense 9.3 vs 7.8 Around 20% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Much heavier 264 lbs vs 155 lbs More than 70% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Much better takedown defense 8.9 vs 7.9 Around 15% better at avoiding being taken down
Significantly longer reach 206 cm vs 193 cm More than 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Taller 191 cm vs 183 cm Around 5% taller
Heavier hands 7.7 vs 7.4 Around 5% better at knocking out good defenders
Harder to hit 8.9 vs 8.7 Almost the same
Diaz on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Lesnar’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Nate
Diaz
In 7:11, how much damage will he do? Diaz Lesnar
Significant Strikes41
Diaz's excellent striking offense will dominate Lesnar's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 65 Significant Strikes in 7:11
Excellent
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Diaz's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Lesnar's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 4 Takedowns in 7:11
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Diaz has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Average
Jaw
Submission
Diaz has a good chance of winning by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Good
Resistance
Decision
Diaz is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
Lesnar on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Diaz’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Brock
Lesnar
In 7:11, how much damage will he do? Lesnar Diaz
Significant Strikes37
Lesnar's good striking offense may be a factor against Diaz's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 65 Significant Strikes in 7:11
Good
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns3
Lesnar's excellent takedown offense will dominate Diaz's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 4 Takedowns in 7:11
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Lesnar is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Lesnar is unlikely to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Lesnar is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Diaz 9.3
fighter Lesnar 8.9
Great striking by Diaz
33 strikes Nov 30, 2013 vs Maynard
46 strikes May 05, 2012 vs Miller
238 strikes Dec 30, 2011 vs Cerrone

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Diaz 7.8
fighter Lesnar 9.3
Great takedowns by Lesnar
1 takedown Jul 03, 2010 vs Carwin
1 takedown Jul 11, 2009 vs Mir
2 takedowns Nov 15, 2008 vs Couture

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Diaz 7.4
fighter Lesnar 7.7
Great knockouts by Lesnar
Round 2 Jul 11, 2009 vs Mir
Round 2 Nov 15, 2008 vs Couture

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Diaz 8.6
fighter Lesnar 7.8
Great submissions by Diaz
Round 2 May 05, 2012 vs Miller
Round 1 Sep 24, 2011 vs Gomi
Round 3 Aug 28, 2010 vs Davis

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Diaz 8.7
fighter Lesnar 8.2
Fast finishes by Diaz
158 seconds Nov 30, 2013 vs Maynard
549 seconds May 05, 2012 vs Miller
267 seconds Sep 24, 2011 vs Gomi
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Diaz
legend Lesnar
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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