UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Lesnar vs Velasquez

1,820

CageRank

WINNER
Velasquez

prediction

BY KO ROUND 1

prediction
91% chance Velasquez
WILL WIN

2,220

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Cain Velasquez
Much heavier hands 10.0 vs 7.7 More than 30% better at knocking out good defenders
Better striker 10.0 vs 8.9 More than 10% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Much harder to hit 9.7 vs 8.9 Around 10% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Much stronger jaw 9.3 vs 7.8 Around 20% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Significantly fast finishes 9.3 vs 8.2 Around 15% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Puts up a fight 9.2 vs 8.1 Around 15% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Better takedown defense 9.5 vs 8.9 More than 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Better submission defense 8.6 vs 8.2 More than 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Younger 34 years vs 39 years Around 15% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Advantages for Brock Lesnar
Significantly better submission offense 7.8 vs 6.7 More than 15% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Significantly heavier 264 lbs vs 241 lbs Around 10% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Significantly longer reach 206 cm vs 196 cm More than 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Taller 191 cm vs 185 cm Around 5% taller
Slightly stronger takedown offense 9.3 vs 9.2 Almost the same
Velasquez on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Lesnar’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Cain
Velasquez
In 4:39, how much damage will he do? Velasquez Lesnar
Significant Strikes33
Velasquez's excellent striking offense will dominate Lesnar's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 42 Significant Strikes in 4:39
Excellent
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Velasquez's excellent takedown offense will dominate Lesnar's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 3 Takedowns in 4:39
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Velasquez has a very good chance of winning by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Average
Jaw
Submission
Velasquez is unlikely to win by submission
Below average
Submission ability
vs
Good
Resistance
Decision
Velasquez is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
Lesnar on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Velasquez’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Brock
Lesnar
In 4:39, how much damage will he do? Lesnar Velasquez
Significant Strikes14
Lesnar's good striking offense won't be a factor against Velasquez's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 42 Significant Strikes in 4:39
Good
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Lesnar's excellent takedown offense is matched by Velasquez's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 3 Takedowns in 4:39
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Lesnar is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Lesnar is unlikely to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Lesnar is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Velasquez 10.0
fighter Lesnar 8.9
Great striking by Velasquez
18 strikes May 25, 2013 vs Silva
111 strikes Dec 29, 2012 vs dos Santos
23 strikes Feb 20, 2010 vs Nogueira

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Velasquez 9.2
fighter Lesnar 9.3
Great takedowns by Lesnar
1 takedown Jul 03, 2010 vs Carwin
1 takedown Jul 11, 2009 vs Mir
2 takedowns Nov 15, 2008 vs Couture

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Velasquez 10.0
fighter Lesnar 7.7
Great knockouts by Velasquez
Round 5 Oct 19, 2013 vs dos Santos
Round 1 May 25, 2013 vs Silva
Round 1 Feb 20, 2010 vs Nogueira

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Velasquez 6.7
fighter Lesnar 7.8
Great submissions by Lesnar
Round 2 Jul 03, 2010 vs Carwin
Round 1 Jun 02, 2007 vs Soo Kim

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Velasquez 9.4
fighter Lesnar 8.2
Fast finishes by Velasquez
1389 seconds Oct 19, 2013 vs dos Santos
81 seconds May 25, 2013 vs Silva
140 seconds Feb 20, 2010 vs Nogueira
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
October 23, 2010UFC 121
team
VS
team
XR1 KO
XR2 KO
1,8652,023
1,8362,051
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Velasquez
legend Lesnar
Read More
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Fantasy Cage Match
Velasquez vs Jones
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Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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