UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Lesnar vs Carwin

1,820

CageRank

WINNER
Carwin

prediction

BY KO ROUND 2

prediction
58% chance Carwin
WILL WIN

1,875

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Shane Carwin
Significantly stronger jaw 8.9 vs 7.8 Around 15% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Significantly fast finishes 9.0 vs 8.2 Around 10% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Puts up a fight 8.9 vs 8.1 Around 10% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Heavier hands 8.4 vs 7.7 Around 10% better at knocking out good defenders
Better striker 9.0 vs 8.9 Almost the same
Slightly better submission defense 8.3 vs 8.2 Almost the same
Advantages for Brock Lesnar
Much stronger takedown offense 9.3 vs 8.4 More than 10% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Better takedown defense 8.9 vs 8.4 More than 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Better submission offense 7.8 vs 7.4 More than 5% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Heavier 264 lbs vs 253 lbs Around 5% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Younger 39 years vs 42 years More than 5% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Taller 191 cm vs 188 cm Almost the same
Longer reach 206 cm vs 203 cm Almost the same
Carwin on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Lesnar’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Shane
Carwin
In 6:09, how much damage will he do? Carwin Lesnar
Significant Strikes32
Carwin's excellent striking offense will dominate Lesnar's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 55 Significant Strikes in 6:09
Excellent
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Carwin's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Lesnar's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 3 Takedowns in 6:09
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Carwin has a very good chance of winning by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Average
Jaw
Submission
Carwin is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Good
Resistance
Decision
Carwin is unlikely to win by decision
Poor
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
Lesnar on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Carwin’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Brock
Lesnar
In 6:09, how much damage will he do? Lesnar Carwin
Significant Strikes30
Lesnar's good striking offense is matched by Carwin's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 55 Significant Strikes in 6:09
Good
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Lesnar's excellent takedown offense will dominate Carwin's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 3 Takedowns in 6:09
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Lesnar is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Lesnar has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Good
Resistance
Decision
Lesnar is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Carwin 9.0
fighter Lesnar 8.9
Great striking by Carwin
49 strikes Mar 27, 2010 vs Mir
4 strikes Mar 07, 2009 vs Gonzaga
5 strikes May 24, 2008 vs Wellisch

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Carwin 8.4
fighter Lesnar 9.3
Great takedowns by Lesnar
1 takedown Jul 03, 2010 vs Carwin
1 takedown Jul 11, 2009 vs Mir
2 takedowns Nov 15, 2008 vs Couture

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Carwin 8.4
fighter Lesnar 7.7
Great knockouts by Carwin
Round 1 Mar 27, 2010 vs Mir
Round 1 Mar 07, 2009 vs Gonzaga
Round 1 May 24, 2008 vs Wellisch

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Carwin 7.4
fighter Lesnar 7.8
Great submissions by Lesnar
Round 2 Jul 03, 2010 vs Carwin
Round 1 Jun 02, 2007 vs Soo Kim

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Carwin 9.0
fighter Lesnar 8.2
Fast finishes by Carwin
228 seconds Mar 27, 2010 vs Mir
69 seconds Mar 07, 2009 vs Gonzaga
44 seconds May 24, 2008 vs Wellisch
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
July 3, 2010UFC 116
team
VS
team
R2 SUBX
XR3 KO
1,7901,979
1,8651,905
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Carwin
legend Lesnar
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
comments powered by Disqus