UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Lesnar vs Mir

1,820

CageRank

WINNER
Mir

prediction

BY Submission ROUND 2

prediction
68% chance Mir
WILL WIN

1,948

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Frank Mir
Significantly better submission defense 9.4 vs 8.2 More than 15% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Puts up a fight 9.0 vs 8.1 More than 10% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Better takedown defense 9.4 vs 8.9 Around 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Stronger jaw 8.3 vs 7.8 More than 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Better submission offense 8.1 vs 7.8 Around 5% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Fast finishes 8.4 vs 8.2 Around 5% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Slightly younger 37 years vs 39 years More than 5% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Advantages for Brock Lesnar
Much stronger takedown offense 9.3 vs 8.1 Around 15% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Better striker 8.9 vs 8.6 Around 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Longer reach 206 cm vs 201 cm Around 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Heavier hands 7.7 vs 7.2 More than 5% better at knocking out good defenders
Slightly harder to hit 8.9 vs 8.8 Almost the same
Mir on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Lesnar’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Frank
Mir
In 8:28, how much damage will he do? Mir Lesnar
Significant Strikes36
Mir's good striking offense is matched by Lesnar's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 76 Significant Strikes in 8:28
Good
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Mir's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Lesnar's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 5 Takedowns in 8:28
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Mir has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Average
Jaw
Submission
Mir has a good chance of winning by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Good
Resistance
Decision
Mir is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
Lesnar on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Mir’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Brock
Lesnar
In 8:28, how much damage will he do? Lesnar Mir
Significant Strikes43
Lesnar's good striking offense may be a factor against Mir's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 76 Significant Strikes in 8:28
Good
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Lesnar's excellent takedown offense is matched by Mir's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 5 Takedowns in 8:28
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Lesnar has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Good
Jaw
Submission
Lesnar is unlikely to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Lesnar is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Mir 8.7
fighter Lesnar 8.9
Great striking by Lesnar
8 strikes Jul 03, 2010 vs Carwin
47 strikes Jul 11, 2009 vs Mir
31 strikes Nov 15, 2008 vs Couture

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Mir 8.1
fighter Lesnar 9.3
Great takedowns by Lesnar
1 takedown Jul 03, 2010 vs Carwin
1 takedown Jul 11, 2009 vs Mir
2 takedowns Nov 15, 2008 vs Couture

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Mir 7.2
fighter Lesnar 7.7
Great knockouts by Lesnar
Round 2 Jul 11, 2009 vs Mir
Round 2 Nov 15, 2008 vs Couture

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Mir 8.1
fighter Lesnar 7.8
Great submissions by Mir
Round 1 Dec 10, 2011 vs Nogueira
Round 1 Dec 12, 2009 vs Kongo
Round 1 Jun 19, 2004 vs Sylvia

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Mir 8.4
fighter Lesnar 8.2
Fast finishes by Mir
218 seconds Dec 10, 2011 vs Nogueira
414 seconds Dec 27, 2008 vs Nogueira
50 seconds Jun 19, 2004 vs Sylvia
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
July 11, 2009UFC 100
team
VS
team
R2 KOX
XR3 SUB
1,7111,939
1,7901,860
February 2, 2008UFC 81
team
VS
team
XR1 SUB
XR3 SUB
1,5461,834
1,5301,850
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Mir
legend Lesnar
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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