UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Lesnar vs Gracie

1,820

CageRank

WINNER
Gracie

prediction

BY Submission ROUND 3

prediction
55% chance Gracie
WILL WIN

1,853

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Royce Gracie
Much harder to hit 9.7 vs 8.9 Around 10% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Much better submission defense 9.4 vs 8.2 Around 15% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Puts up a fight 8.9 vs 8.1 More than 10% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Better takedown defense 9.3 vs 8.9 Around 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Better submission offense 8.0 vs 7.8 Almost the same
Stronger jaw 8.0 vs 7.8 Around 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Advantages for Brock Lesnar
Better striker 8.9 vs 7.3 More than 20% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Much heavier hands 7.7 vs 5.9 More than 30% better at knocking out good defenders
Much stronger takedown offense 9.3 vs 7.6 More than 20% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Much heavier 264 lbs vs 175 lbs More than 50% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Fast finishes 8.2 vs 7.5 Around 10% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Significantly younger 40 years vs 51 years More than 20% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Significantly longer reach 206 cm vs 194 cm More than 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Taller 191 cm vs 183 cm Around 5% taller
Gracie on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Lesnar’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Royce
Gracie
In 11:43, how much damage will he do? Gracie Lesnar
Significant Strikes19
Gracie's poor striking offense won't be a factor against Lesnar's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 105 Significant Strikes in 11:43
Poor
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Gracie's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Lesnar's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 11:43
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Gracie is unlikely to win by knockout
Weak
Knockout ability
vs
Average
Jaw
Submission
Gracie has a good chance of winning by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Good
Resistance
Decision
Gracie is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
Lesnar on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Gracie’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Brock
Lesnar
In 11:43, how much damage will he do? Lesnar Gracie
Significant Strikes34
Lesnar's good striking offense won't be a factor against Gracie's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 105 Significant Strikes in 11:43
Good
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Lesnar's excellent takedown offense is matched by Gracie's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 11:43
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Lesnar has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Good
Jaw
Submission
Lesnar is unlikely to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Lesnar is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Gracie 7.3
fighter Lesnar 8.9
Great striking by Lesnar
8 strikes Jul 03, 2010 vs Carwin
47 strikes Jul 11, 2009 vs Mir
31 strikes Nov 15, 2008 vs Couture

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Gracie 7.6
fighter Lesnar 9.3
Great takedowns by Lesnar
1 takedown Jul 03, 2010 vs Carwin
1 takedown Jul 11, 2009 vs Mir
2 takedowns Nov 15, 2008 vs Couture

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Gracie 5.9
fighter Lesnar 7.7
Great knockouts by Lesnar
Round 2 Jul 11, 2009 vs Mir
Round 2 Nov 15, 2008 vs Couture

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Gracie 8.0
fighter Lesnar 7.8
Great submissions by Gracie
Round 1 Mar 11, 1994 vs DeLucia
Round 1 Nov 12, 1993 vs Shamrock
Round 1 Nov 12, 1993 vs Gordeau

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Gracie 7.6
fighter Lesnar 8.2
Fast finishes by Lesnar
439 seconds Jul 03, 2010 vs Carwin
408 seconds Jul 11, 2009 vs Mir
487 seconds Nov 15, 2008 vs Couture
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Gracie
legend Lesnar
Read More
Lesnar vs McGregor
Fantasy Cage Match
Gracie vs Silva
Fantasy Cage Match
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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