UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Lesnar vs McGregor

1,820

CageRank

WINNER
McGregor

prediction

BY KO ROUND 2

prediction
78% chance McGregor
WILL WIN

2,038

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Conor McGregor
Much heavier hands 9.4 vs 7.7 More than 20% better at knocking out good defenders
Fast finishes 9.2 vs 8.2 More than 10% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Much stronger jaw 8.8 vs 7.8 Around 15% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Significantly younger 28 years vs 39 years Around 30% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Puts up a fight 8.9 vs 8.1 Around 10% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Better submission defense 8.7 vs 8.2 More than 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Advantages for Brock Lesnar
Much heavier 264 lbs vs 144 lbs Around 85% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Much better submission offense 7.8 vs 6.4 More than 20% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Much longer reach 206 cm vs 185 cm More than 10% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Much taller 191 cm vs 173 cm More than 10% taller
Much stronger takedown offense 9.3 vs 8.5 More than 10% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Significantly better takedown defense 8.9 vs 8.3 Around 10% better at avoiding being taken down
Significantly harder to hit 8.9 vs 8.5 Around 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Better striker 8.9 vs 8.6 Around 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
McGregor on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Lesnar’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Conor
McGregor
In 5:24, how much damage will he do? McGregor Lesnar
Significant Strikes23
McGregor's good striking offense is matched by Lesnar's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 49 Significant Strikes in 5:24
Good
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
McGregor's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Lesnar's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 3 Takedowns in 5:24
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
McGregor has a very good chance of winning by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Average
Jaw
Submission
McGregor is unlikely to win by submission
Poor
Submission ability
vs
Good
Resistance
Decision
McGregor is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
Lesnar on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against McGregor’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Brock
Lesnar
In 5:24, how much damage will he do? Lesnar McGregor
Significant Strikes31
Lesnar's good striking offense may be a factor against McGregor's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 49 Significant Strikes in 5:24
Good
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Lesnar's excellent takedown offense will dominate McGregor's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 3 Takedowns in 5:24
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Lesnar is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Lesnar is unlikely to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Lesnar is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter McGregor 8.6
fighter Lesnar 8.9
Great striking by Lesnar
8 strikes Jul 03, 2010 vs Carwin
47 strikes Jul 11, 2009 vs Mir
31 strikes Nov 15, 2008 vs Couture

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter McGregor 8.5
fighter Lesnar 9.3
Great takedowns by Lesnar
1 takedown Jul 03, 2010 vs Carwin
1 takedown Jul 11, 2009 vs Mir
2 takedowns Nov 15, 2008 vs Couture

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter McGregor 9.4
fighter Lesnar 7.7
Great knockouts by McGregor
Round 1 Apr 06, 2013 vs Brimage
Round 1 Dec 31, 2012 vs Buchinger
Round 1 Feb 18, 2012 vs O'Keefe

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter McGregor 6.5
fighter Lesnar 7.8
Great submissions by Lesnar
Round 2 Jul 03, 2010 vs Carwin
Round 1 Jun 02, 2007 vs Soo Kim

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter McGregor 9.2
fighter Lesnar 8.2
Fast finishes by McGregor
67 seconds Apr 06, 2013 vs Brimage
220 seconds Dec 31, 2012 vs Buchinger
93 seconds Feb 18, 2012 vs O'Keefe
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend McGregor
legend Lesnar
Read More
Lesnar vs Rousey
Fantasy Cage Match
McGregor vs Nurmagomedov
Fantasy Cage Match
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
Showing 17 comments.
Of course I'm doing nothing, I'm not the one who is fighting McGregor......Brock Lesnar is and I believe he will destroy him once and for all
YOU'RE DOING NOTHING YOU'RE DOING FUCKIN NOTHING
Whoever made this must being smoking crack brock would snap conor like a #2 pencil
This reminds me of marketing: lots of stats and numbers - all of it bullshit.
Alright you all wait until Mcgregor throws his kicks that for sure Brock won't dodge, and even tho he is giant, how much can he handle, and 100 punches that connor needs? I mean, you may be a giant but they hurt, watch him vs the mountain, yeah he is big, and he felt it. And connor was only aiming at the belly.
Don't get me wrong, I love McGregor. He's one of my favorites! But you're gonna sit here and tell me that 145lbs and all 5'8" of Conor is gonna TKO a 6ft 3in, 265lb bear by the name of Brock Lesnar in round 1? Yep, now I've heard it all. Hell, I might as well join the UFC and challenge Lesnar.. I'm 5'8", and a solid 174.
Is this article a fucking joke?......Brock would destroy McGregor within 40 seconds of the first round
I hope this implies that they are both the same weight.... Brock would take 100 punches from McGregor and possibly kill him in 1.
This prediction is funny. I'm a fan of McGregor, but there is no way he beats Lesnar. None. He wouldn't beat any heavy weight in the cage. There is a reason for weight classes.
Absolutely not. Lesnar would go for the double and if he missed he would go into bear more and fucking chase McGregor down until he is on top of him. The instant Brock has his hands on Connor, the fight is over. Brock shoots as fast as a 150 pound man, it only has to happen one time for the fight to be over. Even if Lesnar didn't submit Connor he would ground and pound until he got the TKO
more like 2 minutes
There's no chance. Lesnar didn't like getting hit by Shane Carwin lol who prior too that had all first round finishes,not Mcgregor. Watch The Couture fight if you for one second believe Mcgregor would stand a chance..
Bear in mind this was written pre-Diaz fight and there were plenty of people who bought into McG's power, myself included. Doesn't detract from Brock not liking to be hit, and has almost zero striking skill next to Conor. If Conor were to fight the smartest fight of his life and conserve his energy, there's about a 2% chance that he could win. Avoid the takedown, avoid the slow motion straight right hand, and attack the legs and the body mercilessly. It's a fantasy, but there's a chance. Sorry about the cancer btw.
Jesus christ your comment just gave me cancer. You're seriously delusional.
If you think Conor would hit Lesnar harder than Carwin did, you are high. If you think Conor would be able to bumrush Lesnar with punches before Lesnar double legs him, then you are completely clueless about how takedowns vs strikes usually pans out. With a 120lb weight difference, Lesnar not only defeats Conor McGregor, he murders him within 2 rounds. Get real.
While it is laughable that these two were to square off, on the off chance that in Mojo's BattleWorld they ended up pitted against each other, Conor could win, and his hands would do the trick. Granted, if Brock gets his hands on him it's over, but that's a big if. Conor is incredibly elusive and comparatively, Brock is a turtle compared to McGregor in terms of quickness and speed. Also take into account that Lesnar does not react well to getting hit, and Conor would easily get through Brock's lackluster defense. I could see Conor coming in at weird angles and catching Brock and pressuring him in ways that would take him off of his game. Conor would have to chip away and be in and out before Brock knows what hit him. Conor could realistically win this fight 6/10 times.
LMAO is this serious? McGregor by KO?! Thanks for the laugh lol!
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