UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Lesnar vs McGregor

1,820

CageRank

WINNER
McGregor

prediction

BY KO ROUND 2

prediction
78% chance McGregor
WILL WIN

2,038

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Conor McGregor
Much heavier hands 9.4 vs 7.7 More than 20% better at knocking out good defenders
Fast finishes 9.2 vs 8.2 More than 10% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Much stronger jaw 8.8 vs 7.8 Around 15% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Significantly younger 30 years vs 41 years More than 25% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Puts up a fight 8.9 vs 8.1 Around 10% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Better submission defense 8.7 vs 8.2 More than 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Advantages for Brock Lesnar
Much better submission offense 7.8 vs 6.4 More than 20% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Much heavier 264 lbs vs 155 lbs More than 70% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Much longer reach 206 cm vs 185 cm More than 10% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Much stronger takedown offense 9.3 vs 8.5 More than 10% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
A lot taller 191 cm vs 173 cm More than 10% taller
Significantly better takedown defense 8.9 vs 8.3 Around 10% better at avoiding being taken down
Significantly harder to hit 8.9 vs 8.5 Around 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Better striker 8.9 vs 8.6 Around 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
McGregor on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Lesnar’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Conor
McGregor
In 5:24, how much damage will he do? McGregor Lesnar
Significant Strikes23
McGregor's good striking offense is matched by Lesnar's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 49 Significant Strikes in 5:24
Good
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
McGregor's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Lesnar's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 3 Takedowns in 5:24
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
McGregor has a very good chance of winning by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Average
Jaw
Submission
McGregor is unlikely to win by submission
Poor
Submission ability
vs
Good
Resistance
Decision
McGregor is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
Lesnar on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against McGregor’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Brock
Lesnar
In 5:24, how much damage will he do? Lesnar McGregor
Significant Strikes31
Lesnar's good striking offense may be a factor against McGregor's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 49 Significant Strikes in 5:24
Good
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Lesnar's excellent takedown offense will dominate McGregor's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 3 Takedowns in 5:24
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Lesnar is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Lesnar is unlikely to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Lesnar is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter McGregor 8.6
fighter Lesnar 8.9
Great striking by Lesnar
8 strikes Jul 03, 2010 vs Carwin
47 strikes Jul 11, 2009 vs Mir
31 strikes Nov 15, 2008 vs Couture

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter McGregor 8.5
fighter Lesnar 9.3
Great takedowns by Lesnar
1 takedown Jul 03, 2010 vs Carwin
1 takedown Jul 11, 2009 vs Mir
2 takedowns Nov 15, 2008 vs Couture

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter McGregor 9.4
fighter Lesnar 7.7
Great knockouts by McGregor
Round 1 Apr 06, 2013 vs Brimage
Round 1 Dec 31, 2012 vs Buchinger
Round 1 Feb 18, 2012 vs O'Keefe

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter McGregor 6.5
fighter Lesnar 7.8
Great submissions by Lesnar
Round 2 Jul 03, 2010 vs Carwin
Round 1 Jun 02, 2007 vs Soo Kim

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter McGregor 9.2
fighter Lesnar 8.2
Fast finishes by McGregor
67 seconds Apr 06, 2013 vs Brimage
220 seconds Dec 31, 2012 vs Buchinger
93 seconds Feb 18, 2012 vs O'Keefe
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend McGregor
legend Lesnar
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
Showing 25 comments.
Wtf??are you kidding me? In REALLITY Absolutely no chance for Mcgregor against Brock Lesnar.. Only with a gun Mcgregor can beat Brock.. Or if Conor kick low blow on Brock's @@..
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/cfa3776c981b6aea565de2639e624dbcdc956c04da6e065ab85bfa51994e8ddb.gif
Baaaaahahahahahahaa...Mcgregor would win? The most hilarious thing I've read all week..baaahahahaha..out weighed by 130 lbs and strength is NOT EVEN CLOSE...whoever wrote this comparison is def on drugs..old school hallucagenic drugs...what a moron..lmfao
True, but I would counter that McGregor is likely faster (particuarly in Reflex speed) and would predict that tactic, allowing him to get a knockout blow or at least a devastating hit in before Brock could properly apply the takedown. Ie, brock dives for the legs and gets his nose broken by Connor's knee. As we've seen with guys like Bob Sapp, a MASSIVE size difference is actually something of a disadvantage.
And you are living in a dream world where larger fighters are The Juggernaught from marvel comics. Contrary to what the WWE will have you believe, a punch from a 200lb guy WILL hurt a 250lb guy. It will hurt a LOT. I saw the fight with The Mountain. You can say he was getting manhandled, but Connor was not fighting seriously at all. And even then it was clear that he had more stamina than the mountain. Besides, it only takes less than 10lbs of force to break a knee, and a fighter like Connor can easily exert that, not to mention he's FASTER than the mountain. If they had been fighting for real, The Mountain would not have had the CHANCE to grab Connor. I have seen a man score a knockout blow against a guy 200lbs heavier than him, I have seen a guy take a running knee to the face from a man twice his size and still keep fighting. You overestimate Brock's power. Is he stronger? Yes. But that does not mean he can OHKO. Is he tougher? Yes, but Connor can still hurt him. Is Brock quick for his size? Yes. Key part of that: "For his size" Also, Mike Tyson himself (Who I think knows a thing or too on the subject), has shown that getting a knockout has more too do with WHERE you hit someone and the speed of the blow than mere muscle mass. In fact, it's actually been shown that having more muscles makes it HARDER to score a knockout blow, since the added bulk and reduced flexibility make it harder to gain the proper precision and acceleration. There is a REASON why the bigger you are, the worse a fighter you become. Because size has multiple DISADVANTAGES Finally, tactics may not be the ONLY factor, but they are the most important. Because they allow you to apply your advantages where and when they are most effective. Maximising your advantages while negating your opponents So Connor is quicker, meaning he will probably get the first hit in, he's better trained, so he will know where to hit for maximum impact, he is aware that Brock will try to go for the grapple, so will be ready to defend against that. and he can exert enough force to deal serious damage. I give the over to him.
I'd like to add my rebuttal to your argument, but it really does seem to me that you live in a dream world where tactics are all that matters in fighting. Of course it is very important to be the smarter fighter, but when the conditions of the fight have a heavyweight versing a lightweight, the whole "tactics" argument goes out the window. Brock Lesnar is a scary good fighter who is very skilled in MMA, he's not some 600lb overweight "athlete" that your trying to compare him to. When it comes to raw power and ferocity Brock takes over Conor very easily. Conor measures in at a measly 5'8 155lbs with a 73" reach. Now compare that to Brock who is 6 foot 3, over 100lbs heavier with a reach 8" longer. Brock is feared for his quickness and agility at that size, his power is far beyond Conor's and he has fought many tough opponents who's knockout ability is waaaaaay beyond any lightweight to step in the octogon. Lesnar could easily out-wrestle Conor if it ever went to the ground it's not even a question, but if Brock took Conor down I don't see him being able to get out of that no matter how hard he tried. Like I said before Brock has beaten knockout specialist fighters (eg. Mark Hunt) who would murder Conor in punches. So do you really think that Conor could knockout Lesnar in a fight? You've got be joking if you thought so. Conor is a great fighter, but he's stuggled with people in his own weight division. What makes you think that he could beat someone who is not only bigger, but stronger, longer and tougher than anyone he has fought before in the UFC? Say what you want butat this point your argument is invalid. P.s. for reference just look at Conor spar with The Montain from GoT he was getting man handled like a child. Now just think of Brock who is far more skilled in fighting than The Mountain
Yes, to clarify, I was saying specifically that Lesnar's wrestling is superior to McGregor's. I wasn't saying that Lesnar can generally outpace McGregor (he obviously cannot) but just that he's fast and explosive enough to pull off a takedown at the right opportunity, especially given his reach. Also, of course it's not just "skill+size=win". What I said is more akin to "key skill advantage + massive size advantage + sufficient speed = strong winning odds". That's hard to dispute.
See, I would have thought so too. But there are other factors to consider here: First, mass doesn't provide quite as much defence as people think it does. IT adds a layer of protection, but it still only takes a few good hits to knock out a big man (Look up the fight between a 600 lb fighter and a 135 lb fighter. The smaller guy managed to knock out the bigger guy in a few quick hits). So McGregor knocking Lesnar out with one good right hand IS actually a possiblity. Second, while Brock is focusing on wrestling McGregor down, McGregor could use that time to hammer away on Brock, assuming he doesn't panic and just cover up, which is a BIG if (The main advantage size gives is not a physical one, but a psychological one. You need to fight smart to win any fight, and that's hard to do when you're looking up at the other guy going "Oh crap, oh crap, oh crap"). And even if he isn't knocked out, he's certainly going to feel it. Third, I've actually been reading that being smaller can actually give you an ADVANTAGE in wrestling. It seems counter-intuative, but smaller guys actually have a lower centre of gravity, allowing for better balance and ability to stay on their feet (There's a reason wrestlers tend to go low when trying to out wrestler their opponents). Now Brock could easily pick Conor up to try to slam him, but that would leave Conor's hands free to deliver some punishing shots to Lesnar's temple. Finally, Lesnar may not even use this "Charge and slam" tactic. He may be cautious of McGregor's strikes and go for a different approach. Afterall, "Charge and slam" seems rather amateurish for a trained, experienced fighter. So to me, this fight comes down to who can keep their head in the game, and who's tactics will prevail. For that reason, I'm actually giving the edge to Brock Lesnar, because of the intimidation factor I mentioned earlier. He has a psychological advantage over most opponents, and that means a LOT.
Well... see the thing about this is: Superior Wrestling skills... compared to whom? Elite Takedown skills... compared to whom? Explosive speed... compared to whom? Just because Brock Lesnar "Moves really fast for a man his size", doesn't mean that he can automatically outpace everyone. Now, in the case of these stats, Brock is a better grappler than Conor, but I think people too often make the mistake of thinking that just because fighter A is a big man with Great wrestling skills, that his opponent might not have even BETTER wrestling skills. But there's other things to consider. For instance, Brock Lesnar has historically been something of a glass cannon (In STARK contrast to his portrayal as The Juggernaught in the WWE), great on the offence, but not so good at taking punches. Which could put him at a disadvantage against a fighter with a good quick knockout punch. Fights are actually a lot more complex than just Skill+Size=Win. Not merely because "Skill" is a multifaceted and abstract concept that encompasses a multitude of things. So two fighters with the same years of training and experience could still have wildly diverging advantages and disadvantages in multiple areas.
shut up nerd
McGregor might be able to beat some UFC heavyweight fighters, I don't know. But not any of the top ranked ones.
Correct, size is not the be all and end all. But enormous size difference combined with superior wrestling and elite takedown skills and explosive speed is the be all and end all.
Of course, McGregor is a far superior striker to Brock Lesnar. As I acknowledged McGregor stands a chance, but in order to knock out someone that large it would take several full-powered left crosses in a row landing on the exact perfect spot on the chin. But realistically Brock will probably get a hold of him and take him to the ground before that could happen. I don't think you understand how difficult it is to avoid getting taken down by Brock Lesnar. He can easily take down most heavyweights. A lightweight who weighs over 100 pounds less, has a significant reach disadvantage, and isn't the best wrestler (McGregor) will have no chance of avoiding Lesnar's takedowns long enough to win. I'm *not* just saying Lesnar wins just because of size. I'm saying Lesnar wins because of his size, explosive speed, and his superior wrestling/takedown skills. It's a terrible matchup. Even if Lesnar rushes sloppily and McGregor rocks him with that infamous left hand, one punch won't be enough to knock him out, and Lesnar will immediately "panic wrestle" McGregor to the floor due to the close proximity, before Conor lands any serious additional punches. Again I can't stress enough, that if Brock gets a hold of Conor there are very slim chances the takedown can be prevented.
And what if McGregor used this "Bear Mode" charge to nail a solid knee to Lesnar's jaw or temple? As someone pointed out, McGregor's blows hurt even The Mountain. Brock Lesnar is a better fighter than The Mountain, but that doesn't give him an invincible forcefield. If Brock wins, it WON'T be by doing something so amateurish as charging straight at a lighting quick, highly trained fighter.
A reason based on perception, not reality.
Unrealistic hyperbole.
Thing is, as the statistics show, McGregor is superior to Brock in a lot of areas. Yes, Brock's size provides an advantage, but Conor could counter with a lot of OTHER advantages.
YOU are not a trained fighter. Size is not the be all and end all in a fight.
I defended Conor adamantly regarding the Mountain, explaining to people who don't understand martial arts why he has a solid chance of victory in a real fight. But there's a world of difference between Bjornsson and Lesnar. With Brock we're talking about a great fighter who is very skilled at wrestling and shockingly fast for his size. Grappling is a bit of a weak point for McGregor, and although he has decent takedown defense, that absolutely will not hold up to someone as heavy and strong and quick and skilled at takedowns as Lesnar, who also has a significantly longer reach. It's a terrible, terrible, utterly unfair matchup for McGregor. Sure, he *could* theoretically knock Lesnar out, but it's not the likely outcome. It will almost certainly wind up on the ground with Lesnar either on top or in some controlling position, with McGregor pinned and helpless to the subsequent barrage.
Brock should also tell conner to join wwe and prove who is a pussy
Brock should call for this fight and beat conner then go and beat ufc heavyweight champion and put title on line against conner then put conner in ICU then tell conner talk about wwe being big pussies when he does win the big title in ufc then brock should leave ufc for a 2nd time for wwe
I assume it's just a computer predicting the outcome based on their w/l ratio. Obviously if mcgregor can get choked out by nate diaz, Lesnar would tear his head off or just ragdoll and pummel him. Even if Lesnar let conor hit him, shane carwin and mark hunt couldn't ko him. Lesnar is twice his weight in solid muscle, taking down mcgregor would be like wrestling a child
YOU'RE DOING NOTHING YOU'RE DOING FUCKIN NOTHING
Whoever made this must being smoking crack brock would snap conor like a #2 pencil
This reminds me of marketing: lots of stats and numbers - all of it bullshit.
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