UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Rockhold vs Machida

2,108

CageRank

WINNER
Machida

prediction

BY KO ROUND 3

prediction
58% chance Machida
WILL WIN

2,164

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Lyoto Machida
Much harder to hit 10.0 vs 9.0 More than 10% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Significantly stronger jaw 9.6 vs 8.4 Around 15% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Significantly better takedown defense 9.6 vs 8.8 Around 10% better at avoiding being taken down
Significantly stronger takedown offense 8.0 vs 7.4 Around 10% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Puts up a fight 9.5 vs 8.7 Around 10% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Heavier hands 8.6 vs 7.9 Around 10% better at knocking out good defenders
Advantages for Luke Rockhold
Much better submission offense 8.6 vs 6.8 More than 25% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Fast finishes 9.5 vs 8.2 More than 15% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Significantly longer reach 196 cm vs 188 cm Around 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Younger 33 years vs 40 years Around 20% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Taller 191 cm vs 185 cm Around 5% taller
Better striker 9.1 vs 8.7 Around 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Machida on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Rockhold’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Lyoto
Machida
In 11:48, how much damage will he do? Machida Rockhold
Significant Strikes48
Machida's good striking offense is matched by Rockhold's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 106 Significant Strikes in 11:48
Good
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Machida's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Rockhold's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 11:48
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Machida has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Machida is unlikely to win by submission
Below average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Machida has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Rockhold on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Machida’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Luke
Rockhold
In 11:48, how much damage will he do? Rockhold Machida
Significant Strikes32
Rockhold's excellent striking offense is matched by Machida's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 106 Significant Strikes in 11:48
Excellent
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns0
Rockhold's poor takedown offense won't be a factor against Machida's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 11:48
Poor
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Rockhold is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Rockhold has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Rockhold is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Machida 8.7
fighter Rockhold 9.1
Great striking by Rockhold
12 strikes Jan 15, 2014 vs Philippou
60 strikes Jul 14, 2012 vs Kennedy
97 strikes Sep 10, 2011 vs Souza

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Machida 8.0
fighter Rockhold 7.4
Great takedowns by Machida
1 takedown Feb 23, 2013 vs Henderson
2 takedowns Jan 31, 2009 vs Silva
3 takedowns Mar 26, 2005 vs Penn

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Machida 8.6
fighter Rockhold 7.9
Great knockouts by Machida
Round 1 Oct 26, 2013 vs Munoz
Round 2 May 23, 2009 vs Evans
Round 1 Jan 31, 2009 vs Silva

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Machida 6.8
fighter Rockhold 8.6
Great submissions by Rockhold
Round 1 Nov 06, 2009 vs Taylor
Round 1 Jun 19, 2009 vs Devela
Round 1 Nov 21, 2008 vs Theotikos

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Machida 8.2
fighter Rockhold 9.5
Fast finishes by Rockhold
151 seconds Jan 15, 2014 vs Philippou
266 seconds Jan 07, 2012 vs Jardine
30 seconds Jun 19, 2009 vs Devela
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
April 18, 2015UFC on Fox 15
team
VS
team
R2 SUBX
XX
00
00
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Machida
legend Rockhold
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
Showing 1 comment.
Luke is smart fighter, not likely to fall into Lyotos traps...but Lyotos got too many weapons by which to win. Lyotos footwork & experience vs better fighters will be the difference.
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