UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Caraway vs Rousey

1,963

CageRank

WINNER
Rousey

prediction

BY Submission ROUND 2

prediction
66% chance Rousey
WILL WIN

2,076

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Ronda Rousey
Fast finishes 9.9 vs 8.3 Around 20% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Much heavier hands 7.4 vs 6.4 More than 15% better at knocking out good defenders
Better striker 8.5 vs 8.2 Around 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Younger 31 years vs 34 years Around 10% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Stronger takedown offense 9.4 vs 9.2 Almost the same
Advantages for Bryan Caraway
A lot taller 175 cm vs 168 cm Around 5% taller
Longer reach 173 cm vs 168 cm Around 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Puts up a fight 9.1 vs 8.7 Around 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Stronger jaw 8.9 vs 8.6 Around 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Better submission defense 9.0 vs 8.7 Around 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Harder to hit 8.6 vs 8.5 Almost the same
Better submission offense 9.5 vs 9.3 Almost the same
Rousey on the attack Our prediction about how she’ll perform against Caraway’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Ronda
Rousey
In 6:40, how much damage will she do? Rousey Caraway
Significant Strikes29
Rousey's average striking offense is matched by Caraway's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 60 Significant Strikes in 6:40
Average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Rousey's excellent takedown offense will dominate Caraway's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 4 Takedowns in 6:40
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on her feet
If she wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Rousey is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Rousey has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Rousey is unlikely to win by decision
Poor
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
Caraway on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Rousey’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Bryan
Caraway
In 6:40, how much damage will he do? Caraway Rousey
Significant Strikes27
Caraway's average striking offense is matched by Rousey's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 60 Significant Strikes in 6:40
Average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Caraway's excellent takedown offense will dominate Rousey's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 4 Takedowns in 6:40
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Caraway is unlikely to win by knockout
Weak
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Caraway has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Caraway is unlikely to win by decision
Poor
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Rousey 8.5
fighter Caraway 8.2
Great striking by Rousey
40 strikes Dec 28, 2013 vs Tate
3 strikes Aug 18, 2012 vs Kaufman
8 strikes Mar 03, 2012 vs Tate

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Rousey 9.4
fighter Caraway 9.2
Great takedowns by Rousey
6 takedowns Dec 28, 2013 vs Tate
1 takedown Aug 18, 2012 vs Kaufman
3 takedowns Mar 03, 2012 vs Tate

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Rousey 7.4
fighter Caraway 6.4
Great knockouts by Rousey
Round 1 Aug 01, 2015 vs Correia
Round 1 Jul 05, 2014 vs Davis
Round 1 Feb 22, 2014 vs McMann

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Rousey 9.3
fighter Caraway 9.5
Great submissions by Caraway
Round 3 Apr 27, 2013 vs Bedford
Round 3 Jul 21, 2012 vs Gagnon
Round 1 Feb 19, 2011 vs Weikel

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Rousey 9.9
fighter Caraway 8.3
Fast finishes by Rousey
658 seconds Dec 28, 2013 vs Tate
54 seconds Aug 18, 2012 vs Kaufman
267 seconds Mar 03, 2012 vs Tate
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Rousey
legend Caraway
Read More
Caraway vs Tate
Fantasy Cage Match
Rousey vs Lesnar
Fantasy Cage Match
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
Showing 2 comments.
I'd just about give the edge to Rousey myself ... There's only so much power you can pack into 135lbs, and whatever physical edge Caraway might have, Rousey's got a big skills edge People who've trained with her generally agree
Come on! Caraway, or any male fighter in the same weight class, would destroy her in the first round. This is nonsense. She's a good fighter at the women's level but she would be killed in the male level.
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