UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Caraway vs Gagnon

1,963

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Caraway

prediction

BY Submission ROUND 3

prediction
57% chance Caraway
WILL WIN

1,911

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Bryan Caraway
A lot taller 175 cm vs 168 cm Around 5% taller
Significantly stronger takedown offense 9.2 vs 8.5 Around 10% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Significantly better takedown defense 9.0 vs 8.4 More than 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Better submission offense 9.5 vs 9.0 More than 5% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Better submission defense 9.0 vs 8.5 More than 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Stronger jaw 8.9 vs 8.5 Around 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Puts up a fight 9.1 vs 8.7 Around 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Advantages for Mitch Gagnon
Significantly better striker 8.7 vs 8.2 More than 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Fast finishes 8.6 vs 8.3 Around 5% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Harder to hit 8.7 vs 8.6 Almost the same
Caraway on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Gagnon’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Bryan
Caraway
In 11:25, how much damage will he do? Caraway Gagnon
Significant Strikes42
Caraway's average striking offense is matched by Gagnon's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 103 Significant Strikes in 11:25
Average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns3
Caraway's excellent takedown offense will dominate Gagnon's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 11:25
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Caraway is unlikely to win by knockout
Weak
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Caraway has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Caraway is unlikely to win by decision
Poor
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
Gagnon on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Caraway’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Mitch
Gagnon
In 11:25, how much damage will he do? Gagnon Caraway
Significant Strikes55
Gagnon's good striking offense may be a factor against Caraway's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 103 Significant Strikes in 11:25
Good
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Gagnon's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Caraway's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 11:25
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Gagnon is unlikely to win by knockout
Weak
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Gagnon has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Gagnon is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Caraway 8.2
fighter Gagnon 8.7
Great striking by Gagnon
27 strikes Sep 21, 2013 vs Kimura
5 strikes Sep 22, 2012 vs Watson

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Caraway 9.2
fighter Gagnon 8.5
Great takedowns by Caraway
3 takedowns Apr 27, 2013 vs Bedford
3 takedowns Jul 21, 2012 vs Gagnon
1 takedown Jun 27, 2008 vs Cacdac

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Caraway 9.5
fighter Gagnon 9.0
Great submissions by Caraway
Round 3 Apr 27, 2013 vs Bedford
Round 3 Jul 21, 2012 vs Gagnon
Round 1 Feb 19, 2011 vs Weikel

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Caraway 8.3
fighter Gagnon 8.6
Fast finishes by Gagnon
245 seconds Sep 21, 2013 vs Kimura
69 seconds Sep 22, 2012 vs Watson
129 seconds Oct 21, 2011 vs Harris
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
July 21, 2012UFC 149
team
VS
team
R3 SUBX
R2 SUBX
1,8731,826
1,9171,783
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Caraway
legend Gagnon
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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