UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Caraway vs Perez

1,963

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Caraway

prediction

BY Submission ROUND 3

prediction
68% chance Caraway
WILL WIN

1,836

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Bryan Caraway
Much better submission offense 9.5 vs 7.7 Around 25% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Significantly stronger takedown offense 9.2 vs 8.4 Around 10% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Taller 175 cm vs 170 cm Around 5% taller
Better submission defense 9.0 vs 8.3 Around 10% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Better takedown defense 9.0 vs 8.6 Around 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Puts up a fight 9.1 vs 8.8 Around 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Fast finishes 8.3 vs 8.2 Almost the same
Advantages for Erik Perez
Better striker 8.9 vs 8.2 Around 10% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Significantly heavier hands 7.2 vs 6.4 Around 15% better at knocking out good defenders
Younger 29 years vs 34 years Around 15% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Harder to hit 8.7 vs 8.6 Almost the same
Caraway on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Perez’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Bryan
Caraway
In 11:34, how much damage will he do? Caraway Perez
Significant Strikes43
Caraway's average striking offense is matched by Perez's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 104 Significant Strikes in 11:34
Average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns3
Caraway's excellent takedown offense will dominate Perez's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 11:34
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Caraway is unlikely to win by knockout
Weak
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Caraway has a good chance of winning by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Good
Resistance
Decision
Caraway is unlikely to win by decision
Poor
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
Perez on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Caraway’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Erik
Perez
In 11:34, how much damage will he do? Perez Caraway
Significant Strikes61
Perez's good striking offense may be a factor against Caraway's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 104 Significant Strikes in 11:34
Good
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Perez's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Caraway's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 11:34
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Perez is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Perez is unlikely to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Perez is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Caraway 8.2
fighter Perez 8.9
Great striking by Perez
50 strikes Nov 16, 2013 vs Figueroa
9 strikes Aug 11, 2012 vs Stone
18 strikes Jun 01, 2012 vs Albert

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Caraway 9.2
fighter Perez 8.4
Great takedowns by Caraway
3 takedowns Apr 27, 2013 vs Bedford
3 takedowns Jul 21, 2012 vs Gagnon
1 takedown Jun 27, 2008 vs Cacdac

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Caraway 6.4
fighter Perez 7.2
Great knockouts by Perez
Round 1 Dec 29, 2012 vs Bloodworth
Round 1 Aug 11, 2012 vs Stone
Round 1 Apr 11, 2009 vs Martinez

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Caraway 9.5
fighter Perez 7.7
Great submissions by Caraway
Round 3 Apr 27, 2013 vs Bedford
Round 3 Jul 21, 2012 vs Gagnon
Round 1 Feb 19, 2011 vs Weikel

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Caraway 8.3
fighter Perez 8.2
Fast finishes by Caraway
884 seconds Apr 27, 2013 vs Bedford
197 seconds Feb 19, 2011 vs Weikel
235 seconds Oct 03, 2009 vs Pelczynski
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
June 7, 2014UFC Fight Night 42
team
VS
team
R2 SUBX
XX
00
00
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Caraway
legend Perez
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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