UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Mitrione vs Bader

1,836

CageRank

WINNER
Bader

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
80% chance Bader
WILL WIN

2,073

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Ryan Bader
Much stronger takedown offense 8.7 vs 7.3 Around 20% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Much harder to hit 9.4 vs 8.8 More than 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Significantly better takedown defense 9.2 vs 8.4 Around 10% better at avoiding being taken down
Significantly better submission offense 7.3 vs 6.8 Around 10% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Better submission defense 8.5 vs 7.8 Around 10% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Puts up a fight 8.8 vs 8.4 More than 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Younger 35 years vs 40 years Around 15% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Longer winning streak 5 fights vs 4 fights 25% longer winning streak; has momentum coming into a fight
Stronger jaw 8.8 vs 8.6 Almost the same
Advantages for Matt Mitrione
Much heavier hands 8.8 vs 7.6 More than 15% better at knocking out good defenders
Much longer reach 208 cm vs 188 cm More than 10% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Significantly heavier 255 lbs vs 205 lbs Around 25% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Fast finishes 8.3 vs 8.1 Around 5% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Slightly taller 191 cm vs 188 cm Almost the same
Bader on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Mitrione’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Ryan
Bader
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Bader Mitrione
Significant Strikes69
Bader's good striking offense may be a factor against Mitrione's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Good
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns3
Bader's average takedown offense is matched by Mitrione's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Bader is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Bader has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Average
Resistance
Decision
Bader has a very good chance of winning by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Average
Scoring ability
Mitrione on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Bader’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Matt
Mitrione
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Mitrione Bader
Significant Strikes48
Mitrione's good striking offense won't be a factor against Bader's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Good
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Mitrione's poor takedown offense won't be a factor against Bader's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Poor
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Mitrione has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Mitrione is unlikely to win by submission
Below average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Mitrione is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Bader 8.7
fighter Mitrione 8.7
Great striking by Bader
3 strikes Jan 26, 2013 vs Matyushenko
55 strikes Feb 26, 2012 vs Jackson
42 strikes Sep 25, 2010 vs Rogerio Nogueira

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Bader 8.7
fighter Mitrione 7.3
Great takedowns by Bader
3 takedowns Dec 07, 2013 vs Perosh
4 takedowns Feb 26, 2012 vs Jackson
5 takedowns Sep 25, 2010 vs Rogerio Nogueira

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Bader 7.6
fighter Mitrione 8.8
Great knockouts by Mitrione
Round 1 Apr 06, 2013 vs De Fries
Round 2 Jun 26, 2011 vs Morecraft
Round 1 Jan 22, 2011 vs Hague

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Bader 7.4
fighter Mitrione 6.8
Great submissions by Bader
Round 1 Jan 26, 2013 vs Matyushenko
Round 1 Apr 05, 2008 vs Acosta
Round 1 May 12, 2007 vs Baggett

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Bader 8.1
fighter Mitrione 8.3
Fast finishes by Mitrione
19 seconds Apr 06, 2013 vs De Fries
568 seconds Jun 26, 2011 vs Morecraft
179 seconds Jan 22, 2011 vs Hague
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Bader
legend Mitrione
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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