UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Larson vs Condit

1,879

CageRank

WINNER
Condit

prediction

BY KO ROUND 3

prediction
80% chance Condit
WILL WIN

2,125

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Carlos Condit
Much heavier hands 8.8 vs 6.7 More than 30% better at knocking out good defenders
Better striker 8.8 vs 8.1 Around 10% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Significantly longer reach 192 cm vs 180 cm More than 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Fast finishes 8.7 vs 8.2 More than 5% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Younger 34 years vs 41 years More than 15% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Puts up a fight 9.6 vs 9.0 More than 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Taller 185 cm vs 180 cm Around 5% taller
Better submission defense 9.2 vs 8.8 More than 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Advantages for Brock Larson
Much better takedown defense 8.8 vs 7.5 Around 20% better at avoiding being taken down
Much stronger takedown offense 8.7 vs 7.5 More than 15% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Harder to hit 9.5 vs 9.3 Almost the same
Condit on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Larson’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Carlos
Condit
In 11:03, how much damage will he do? Condit Larson
Significant Strikes37
Condit's good striking offense won't be a factor against Larson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 99 Significant Strikes in 11:03
Good
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Condit's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Larson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 11:03
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Condit has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Condit is unlikely to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Condit is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
Larson on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Condit’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Brock
Larson
In 11:03, how much damage will he do? Larson Condit
Significant Strikes26
Larson's average striking offense won't be a factor against Condit's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 99 Significant Strikes in 11:03
Average
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns4
Larson's average takedown offense may be a factor against Condit's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 11:03
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Below average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Larson is unlikely to win by knockout
Below average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Larson is unlikely to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Larson is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Condit 8.9
fighter Larson 8.2
Great striking by Condit
100 strikes Aug 28, 2013 vs Kampmann
151 strikes Feb 04, 2012 vs Diaz
26 strikes Oct 16, 2010 vs Hardy

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Condit 7.5
fighter Larson 8.7
Great takedowns by Larson
1 takedown May 23, 2009 vs Pyle
1 takedown Mar 26, 2008 vs Alessio
5 takedowns Dec 13, 2006 vs Nakamura

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Condit 8.8
fighter Larson 6.7
Great knockouts by Condit
Round 4 Aug 28, 2013 vs Kampmann
Round 1 Jul 02, 2011 vs Hyun Kim
Round 1 Oct 16, 2010 vs Hardy

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Condit 7.9
fighter Larson 7.9
Great submissions by Condit
Round 1 Feb 13, 2008 vs Prater
Round 1 Aug 05, 2007 vs Larson
Round 1 Apr 21, 2006 vs Trigg

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Condit 8.7
fighter Larson 8.2
Fast finishes by Condit
954 seconds Aug 28, 2013 vs Kampmann
267 seconds Oct 16, 2010 vs Hardy
141 seconds Aug 05, 2007 vs Larson
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
August 5, 2007WEC 29
team
VS
team
XR1 SUB
R1 SUBX
2,0081,957
1,9512,014
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Condit
legend Larson
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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