UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Morris vs Velasquez

1,610

CageRank

WINNER
Velasquez

prediction

BY KO ROUND 1

prediction
97% chance Velasquez
WILL WIN

2,220

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Cain Velasquez
Better striker 10.0 vs 8.0 More than 25% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Much harder to hit 9.7 vs 8.2 Around 20% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Much heavier hands 10.0 vs 6.7 Around 50% better at knocking out good defenders
Fast finishes 9.3 vs 7.4 More than 25% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Much better takedown defense 9.5 vs 8.3 Around 15% better at avoiding being taken down
Much stronger takedown offense 9.2 vs 8.1 Around 15% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Much stronger jaw 9.3 vs 7.8 Around 20% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Puts up a fight 9.2 vs 7.8 Around 20% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Better submission defense 8.6 vs 7.9 Around 10% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Longer reach 196 cm vs 188 cm Around 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Younger 34 years vs 37 years Around 10% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Advantages for Brad Morris
Better submission offense 7.3 vs 6.7 Around 10% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Heavier 253 lbs vs 241 lbs Around 5% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Velasquez on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Morris’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Cain
Velasquez
In 3:28, how much damage will he do? Velasquez Morris
Significant Strikes27
Velasquez's excellent striking offense will dominate Morris's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 31 Significant Strikes in 3:28
Excellent
Striking
vs
Below average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Velasquez's excellent takedown offense will dominate Morris's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 2 Takedowns in 3:28
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Velasquez has a very good chance of winning by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Average
Jaw
Submission
Velasquez is unlikely to win by submission
Below average
Submission ability
vs
Average
Resistance
Decision
Velasquez is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Morris on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Velasquez’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Brad
Morris
In 3:28, how much damage will he do? Morris Velasquez
Significant Strikes5
Morris's below average striking offense won't be a factor against Velasquez's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 31 Significant Strikes in 3:28
Below average
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns0
Morris's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Velasquez's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 2 Takedowns in 3:28
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Morris is unlikely to win by knockout
Below average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Morris is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Morris is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Velasquez 10.0
fighter Morris 8.0
Great striking by Velasquez
18 strikes May 25, 2013 vs Silva
111 strikes Dec 29, 2012 vs dos Santos
23 strikes Feb 20, 2010 vs Nogueira

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Velasquez 9.2
fighter Morris 8.1
Great takedowns by Velasquez
2 takedowns Oct 19, 2013 vs dos Santos
11 takedowns Dec 29, 2012 vs dos Santos
5 takedowns Oct 24, 2009 vs Rothwell

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Velasquez 10.0
fighter Morris 6.7
Great knockouts by Velasquez
Round 5 Oct 19, 2013 vs dos Santos
Round 1 May 25, 2013 vs Silva
Round 1 Feb 20, 2010 vs Nogueira

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Velasquez 6.7
fighter Morris 7.3
Great submissions by Morris
Round 1 Feb 09, 2008 vs Kono
Round 1 Feb 04, 2005 vs Cutajar
Round 1 Aug 13, 2004 vs Foki

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Velasquez 9.4
fighter Morris 7.4
Fast finishes by Velasquez
1389 seconds Oct 19, 2013 vs dos Santos
81 seconds May 25, 2013 vs Silva
140 seconds Feb 20, 2010 vs Nogueira
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
April 19, 2008UFC 83
team
VS
team
XR1 KO
R2 SUBX
1,7641,623
1,6951,693
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Velasquez
legend Morris
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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