UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Burns vs Carneiro

1,722

CageRank

WINNER
Carneiro

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
65% chance Carneiro
WILL WIN

1,831

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Roan Carneiro
Much stronger takedown offense 9.3 vs 7.9 Around 20% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Much better takedown defense 9.0 vs 7.9 More than 15% better at avoiding being taken down
Much harder to hit 8.9 vs 8.3 More than 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Significantly stronger jaw 8.7 vs 7.7 Around 15% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Longer reach 193 cm vs 188 cm Around 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Advantages for Kevin Burns
Significantly better submission defense 9.0 vs 8.0 Around 15% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Significantly better striker 8.4 vs 8.0 More than 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Heavier hands 7.0 vs 6.4 Around 10% better at knocking out good defenders
Better submission offense 8.2 vs 7.9 Around 5% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Fast finishes 8.2 vs 7.9 Around 5% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Taller 183 cm vs 180 cm Almost the same
Carneiro on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Burns’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Roan
Carneiro
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Carneiro Burns
Significant Strikes60
Carneiro's below average striking offense won't be a factor against Burns's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Below average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns6
Carneiro's excellent takedown offense will dominate Burns's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Carneiro is unlikely to win by knockout
Weak
Knockout ability
vs
Average
Jaw
Submission
Carneiro is unlikely to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Carneiro has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Average
Scoring ability
Burns on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Carneiro’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Kevin
Burns
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Burns Carneiro
Significant Strikes53
Burns's average striking offense won't be a factor against Carneiro's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Average
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Burns's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Carneiro's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Burns is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Burns has a good chance of winning by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Good
Resistance
Decision
Burns is unlikely to win by decision
Poor
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Carneiro 8.0
fighter Burns 8.4
Great striking by Burns
37 strikes Jul 19, 2008 vs Johnson
8 strikes Jun 07, 2008 vs Carneiro

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Carneiro 9.3
fighter Burns 7.9
Great takedowns by Carneiro
3 takedowns Dec 29, 2007 vs DeSouza
7 takedowns Apr 05, 2007 vs Clementi

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Carneiro 6.4
fighter Burns 7.0
Great knockouts by Burns
Round 3 Jul 19, 2008 vs Johnson
Round 1 May 09, 2008 vs Voelker
Round 1 Aug 19, 2006 vs Deeds

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Carneiro 7.9
fighter Burns 8.2
Great submissions by Burns
Round 2 Jun 07, 2008 vs Carneiro
Round 1 Apr 20, 2007 vs Westbrook
Round 1 Dec 09, 2006 vs Delanoit

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Carneiro 7.9
fighter Burns 8.2
Fast finishes by Burns
473 seconds Jun 07, 2008 vs Carneiro
30 seconds May 09, 2008 vs Voelker
238 seconds Aug 19, 2006 vs Deeds
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
June 7, 2008UFC 85
team
VS
team
R2 SUBX
XDEC
1,7411,837
1,8051,773
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Carneiro
legend Burns
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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