UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Lawrence vs Holloway

1,685

CageRank

WINNER
Holloway

prediction

BY KO ROUND 3

prediction
78% chance Holloway
WILL WIN

1,900

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Max Holloway
Significantly stronger jaw 8.9 vs 7.7 More than 15% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Significantly better striker 8.6 vs 8.2 Around 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
A lot taller 180 cm vs 173 cm Around 5% taller
Puts up a fight 8.9 vs 7.8 Around 15% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Significantly heavier hands 7.9 vs 7.1 More than 10% better at knocking out good defenders
Longer reach 177 cm vs 170 cm Around 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Better submission defense 8.4 vs 7.8 Around 10% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Fast finishes 7.3 vs 7.1 Almost the same
Advantages for Justin Lawrence
Significantly stronger takedown offense 8.3 vs 7.5 More than 10% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Significantly harder to hit 8.8 vs 8.4 Around 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Holloway on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Lawrence’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Max
Holloway
In 11:31, how much damage will he do? Holloway Lawrence
Significant Strikes50
Holloway's average striking offense is matched by Lawrence's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 104 Significant Strikes in 11:31
Average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Holloway's poor takedown offense won't be a factor against Lawrence's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 11:31
Poor
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Holloway has a chance to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Average
Jaw
Submission
Holloway is unlikely to win by submission
Below average
Submission ability
vs
Average
Resistance
Decision
Holloway has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Good
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
Lawrence on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Holloway’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Justin
Lawrence
In 11:31, how much damage will he do? Lawrence Holloway
Significant Strikes50
Lawrence's average striking offense is matched by Holloway's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 104 Significant Strikes in 11:31
Average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns3
Lawrence's average takedown offense may be a factor against Holloway's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 11:31
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Below average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Lawrence is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Lawrence is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Lawrence has a chance to win by decision
Good
Scoring ability
vs
Average
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Holloway 8.6
fighter Lawrence 8.2
Great striking by Holloway
120 strikes Dec 29, 2012 vs Garcia
29 strikes Aug 11, 2012 vs Lawrence
118 strikes Jun 01, 2012 vs Schilling

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Holloway 7.5
fighter Lawrence 8.3
Great takedowns by Lawrence
1 takedown Jun 01, 2012 vs Cofer

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Holloway 7.9
fighter Lawrence 7.2
Great knockouts by Holloway
Round 2 Jan 04, 2014 vs Chope
Round 2 Aug 11, 2012 vs Lawrence
Round 1 Nov 06, 2010 vs Kamaka

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Holloway 6.8
fighter Lawrence 6.9
Great submissions by Lawrence
Round 1 Nov 11, 2011 vs Webb

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Holloway 7.3
fighter Lawrence 7.1
Fast finishes by Holloway
447 seconds Jan 04, 2014 vs Chope
589 seconds Aug 11, 2012 vs Lawrence
189 seconds Nov 06, 2010 vs Kamaka
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
August 11, 2012UFC 150
team
VS
team
XR2 KO
XDEC
1,6961,772
1,6571,811
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Holloway
legend Lawrence
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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