UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Sarmiento vs Diaz

1,648

CageRank

WINNER
Diaz

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
95% chance Diaz
WILL WIN

2,151

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Nick Diaz
Fast finishes 8.7 vs 6.8 Around 30% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Much heavier hands 8.4 vs 6.3 Around 35% better at knocking out good defenders
Better striker 9.7 vs 8.1 Around 20% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Much better submission offense 8.0 vs 6.4 Around 25% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Much better takedown defense 8.8 vs 7.7 Around 15% better at avoiding being taken down
Much taller 185 cm vs 168 cm More than 10% taller
Puts up a fight 9.9 vs 8.8 More than 10% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Significantly stronger jaw 9.8 vs 9.0 Around 10% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Significantly better submission defense 9.5 vs 8.7 Around 10% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Heavier 169 lbs vs 144 lbs More than 15% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Advantages for Harris Sarmiento
Much stronger takedown offense 8.4 vs 7.6 More than 10% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Diaz on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Sarmiento’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Nick
Diaz
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Diaz Sarmiento
Significant Strikes111
Diaz's excellent striking offense will dominate Sarmiento's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Excellent
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns3
Diaz's below average takedown offense is matched by Sarmiento's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Below average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Diaz has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Diaz has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Diaz has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Average
Scoring ability
Sarmiento on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Diaz’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Harris
Sarmiento
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Sarmiento Diaz
Significant Strikes63
Sarmiento's average striking offense is matched by Diaz's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Sarmiento's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Diaz's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Sarmiento is unlikely to win by knockout
Weak
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Sarmiento is unlikely to win by submission
Poor
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Sarmiento has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Average
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Diaz 9.7
fighter Sarmiento 8.1
Great striking by Diaz
178 strikes Oct 29, 2011 vs Penn
44 strikes Apr 09, 2011 vs Daley
13 strikes Feb 05, 2005 vs Fickett

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Diaz 8.4
fighter Sarmiento 6.3
Great knockouts by Diaz
Round 1 Apr 09, 2011 vs Daley
Round 1 Jan 30, 2010 vs Zaromskis
Round 1 Feb 05, 2005 vs Fickett

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Diaz 8.0
fighter Sarmiento 6.4
Great submissions by Diaz
Round 1 May 29, 2010 vs Sakurai
Round 3 Jun 06, 2009 vs Smith
Round 3 Aug 26, 2006 vs Neer

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Diaz 8.7
fighter Sarmiento 6.8
Fast finishes by Diaz
297 seconds Apr 09, 2011 vs Daley
278 seconds Jan 30, 2010 vs Zaromskis
280 seconds Feb 05, 2005 vs Fickett
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
team
VS
team
XR2 KO
XDEC
1,4001,640
1,3801,660
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Diaz
legend Sarmiento
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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