UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Holloway vs Ferguson

1,900

CageRank

WINNER
Ferguson

prediction

BY KO ROUND 3

prediction
62% chance Ferguson
WILL WIN

1,986

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Tony Ferguson
Fast finishes 8.8 vs 7.3 More than 20% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Much better takedown defense 8.9 vs 7.7 Around 15% better at avoiding being taken down
Much heavier hands 8.8 vs 7.9 More than 10% better at knocking out good defenders
Significantly longer reach 193 cm vs 177 cm Around 10% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Significantly stronger takedown offense 8.1 vs 7.5 Around 10% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Better submission offense 7.2 vs 6.8 More than 5% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Harder to hit 8.5 vs 8.4 Almost the same
Heavier 155 lbs vs 144 lbs Around 10% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Slightly taller 183 cm vs 180 cm Almost the same
Advantages for Max Holloway
Younger 25 years vs 33 years Around 25% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Longer winning streak 10 fights vs 9 fights More than 10% longer winning streak; has momentum coming into a fight
Ferguson on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Holloway’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Tony
Ferguson
In 10:09, how much damage will he do? Ferguson Holloway
Significant Strikes54
Ferguson's good striking offense may be a factor against Holloway's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 91 Significant Strikes in 10:09
Good
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns3
Ferguson's average takedown offense may be a factor against Holloway's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 10:09
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Below average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Ferguson has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Ferguson is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Ferguson is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Average
Scoring ability
Holloway on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Ferguson’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Max
Holloway
In 10:09, how much damage will he do? Holloway Ferguson
Significant Strikes50
Holloway's average striking offense is matched by Ferguson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 91 Significant Strikes in 10:09
Average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Holloway's poor takedown offense won't be a factor against Ferguson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 10:09
Poor
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Holloway is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Holloway is unlikely to win by submission
Below average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Holloway has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Good
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Ferguson 8.6
fighter Holloway 8.6
Great striking by Ferguson
5 strikes Oct 19, 2013 vs Rio
61 strikes Dec 03, 2011 vs Edwards
31 strikes Sep 24, 2011 vs Riley

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Ferguson 8.1
fighter Holloway 7.5
Great takedowns by Ferguson
1 takedown Dec 03, 2011 vs Edwards
2 takedowns Jun 04, 2011 vs Nijem

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Ferguson 8.8
fighter Holloway 7.9
Great knockouts by Ferguson
Round 1 Sep 24, 2011 vs Riley
Round 1 Jun 04, 2011 vs Nijem
Round 4 Sep 25, 2010 vs Jardine

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Ferguson 7.2
fighter Holloway 6.8
Great submissions by Ferguson
Round 1 Oct 19, 2013 vs Rio
Round 1 Jan 04, 2009 vs Park
Round 2 Sep 13, 2008 vs Schilling

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Ferguson 8.8
fighter Holloway 7.3
Fast finishes by Ferguson
112 seconds Oct 19, 2013 vs Rio
300 seconds Sep 24, 2011 vs Riley
1055 seconds Sep 25, 2010 vs Jardine
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Ferguson
legend Holloway
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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