UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Mezger vs Sakuraba

1,757

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Mezger

prediction

BY KO ROUND 3

prediction
62% chance Mezger
WILL WIN

1,676

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Guy Mezger
Much heavier hands 7.6 vs 6.2 Around 25% better at knocking out good defenders
Better striker 8.5 vs 7.4 Around 15% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Significantly harder to hit 8.9 vs 8.4 More than 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Significantly better submission defense 9.6 vs 8.9 Around 10% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Puts up a fight 9.1 vs 8.4 Around 10% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Heavier 200 lbs vs 166 lbs More than 20% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Taller 185 cm vs 183 cm Almost the same
Advantages for Kazushi Sakuraba
Much better submission offense 8.1 vs 6.6 More than 20% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Stronger takedown offense 7.8 vs 7.5 Around 5% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Stronger jaw 8.2 vs 8.0 Around 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Slightly younger 47 years vs 49 years Around 5% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Mezger on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Sakuraba’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Guy
Mezger
In 12:38, how much damage will he do? Mezger Sakuraba
Significant Strikes63
Mezger's average striking offense is matched by Sakuraba's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 114 Significant Strikes in 12:38
Average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Mezger's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Sakuraba's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 7 Takedowns in 12:38
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Mezger is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Good
Jaw
Submission
Mezger is unlikely to win by submission
Below average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Mezger is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
Sakuraba on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Mezger’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Kazushi
Sakuraba
In 12:38, how much damage will he do? Sakuraba Mezger
Significant Strikes22
Sakuraba's poor striking offense won't be a factor against Mezger's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 114 Significant Strikes in 12:38
Poor
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Sakuraba's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Mezger's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 7 Takedowns in 12:38
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Sakuraba is unlikely to win by knockout
Weak
Knockout ability
vs
Good
Jaw
Submission
Sakuraba has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Sakuraba is unlikely to win by decision
Poor
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Mezger 8.5
fighter Sakuraba 7.4
Great striking by Mezger
14 strikes Dec 23, 2000 vs Otsuka
35 strikes May 30, 1997 vs Leninger
19 strikes Dec 16, 1994 vs Fairn

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Mezger 7.5
fighter Sakuraba 7.8
Great takedowns by Sakuraba
2 takedowns Jul 29, 2001 vs Jackson
5 takedowns Aug 27, 2000 vs Gracie
2 takedowns Jan 30, 2000 vs Mezger

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Mezger 7.6
fighter Sakuraba 6.2
Great knockouts by Mezger
Round 2 Dec 06, 2003 vs Bergman
Round 1 May 16, 1996 vs Suzuki
Round 1 Apr 07, 1996 vs Yamada

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Mezger 6.6
fighter Sakuraba 8.1
Great submissions by Sakuraba
Round 1 Aug 05, 2006 vs Smirnovas
Round 1 Dec 31, 2005 vs Minowa
Round 3 Nov 09, 2003 vs Randleman

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Mezger 7.6
fighter Sakuraba 7.6
Fast finishes by Sakuraba
401 seconds Aug 05, 2006 vs Smirnovas
147 seconds Oct 23, 2005 vs Shamrock
2400 seconds May 01, 2000 vs Gracie
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
team
VS
team
XR1 KO
XR1 SUB
1,7761,825
1,7331,868
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Mezger
legend Sakuraba
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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