UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - McCullough vs Aoki

1,815

CageRank

WINNER
Aoki

prediction

BY Submission ROUND 2

prediction
93% chance Aoki
WILL WIN

2,254

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Shinya Aoki
Much better submission offense 9.9 vs 6.4 More than 55% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Much harder to hit 10.0 vs 8.7 More than 15% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Much stronger takedown offense 9.6 vs 7.6 More than 25% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Much better takedown defense 9.7 vs 8.3 More than 15% better at avoiding being taken down
Fast finishes 9.4 vs 7.7 More than 20% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
A lot taller 180 cm vs 173 cm Around 5% taller
Longer reach 183 cm vs 175 cm Around 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Better submission defense 9.8 vs 9.0 Around 10% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Stronger jaw 8.9 vs 8.3 More than 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Younger 34 years vs 40 years 15% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Puts up a fight 9.4 vs 9.0 Around 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Advantages for Rob McCullough
Better striker 8.5 vs 7.4 More than 15% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Much heavier hands 7.7 vs 6.1 More than 25% better at knocking out good defenders
Aoki on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against McCullough’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Shinya
Aoki
In 8:17, how much damage will he do? Aoki McCullough
Significant Strikes17
Aoki's poor striking offense won't be a factor against McCullough's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 75 Significant Strikes in 8:17
Poor
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns3
Aoki's excellent takedown offense will dominate McCullough's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 5 Takedowns in 8:17
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Aoki is unlikely to win by knockout
Weak
Knockout ability
vs
Good
Jaw
Submission
Aoki has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Aoki is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
McCullough on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Aoki’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Rob
McCullough
In 8:17, how much damage will he do? McCullough Aoki
Significant Strikes15
McCullough's average striking offense won't be a factor against Aoki's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 75 Significant Strikes in 8:17
Average
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns0
McCullough's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Aoki's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 5 Takedowns in 8:17
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
McCullough is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
McCullough is unlikely to win by submission
Poor
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
McCullough is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Aoki 7.4
fighter McCullough 8.5
Great striking by McCullough
42 strikes Mar 01, 2009 vs Hicks
35 strikes Jun 01, 2008 vs Alexander
16 strikes Sep 05, 2007 vs Crunkilton

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Aoki 9.6
fighter McCullough 7.6
Great takedowns by Aoki
2 takedowns Dec 31, 2012 vs McKee
6 takedowns Dec 31, 2011 vs Kitaoka
1 takedown Apr 29, 2008 vs Cavalcante

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Aoki 6.1
fighter McCullough 7.7
Great knockouts by McCullough
Round 1 Jul 09, 2010 vs DeJesus
Round 1 Sep 05, 2007 vs Crunkilton
Round 1 Jun 15, 2006 vs Healy

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Aoki 9.9
fighter McCullough 6.4
Great submissions by Aoki
Round 2 Dec 31, 2012 vs McKee
Round 1 Jul 10, 2010 vs Kawajiri
Round 1 Dec 31, 2008 vs Alvarez

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Aoki 9.4
fighter McCullough 7.7
Fast finishes by Aoki
324 seconds Dec 31, 2012 vs McKee
113 seconds Jul 10, 2010 vs Kawajiri
92 seconds Dec 31, 2008 vs Alvarez
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
September 24, 2011Dream 17
team
VS
team
XR1 SUB
XR2 SUB
1,8242,214
1,8152,224
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Aoki
legend McCullough
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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