UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Rogers vs Emelianenko

1,773

CageRank

WINNER
Emelianenko

prediction

BY Submission ROUND 2

prediction
92% chance Emelianenko
WILL WIN

2,189

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Fedor Emelianenko
Much better takedown defense 9.3 vs 7.8 Around 20% better at avoiding being taken down
Much better submission offense 8.3 vs 6.3 More than 30% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Much harder to hit 9.6 vs 8.6 More than 10% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Fast finishes 9.5 vs 8.1 More than 15% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Significantly better submission defense 9.3 vs 8.4 More than 10% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Better striker 9.0 vs 8.7 Around 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Puts up a fight 9.3 vs 8.8 More than 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Stronger jaw 9.1 vs 8.8 Around 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Slightly heavier hands 8.5 vs 8.3 Almost the same
Advantages for Brett Rogers
Much heavier 261 lbs vs 222 lbs Around 20% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Much longer reach 207 cm vs 189 cm Around 10% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Much taller 196 cm vs 183 cm More than 5% taller
Younger 35 years vs 40 years Around 15% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Emelianenko on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Rogers’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Fedor
Emelianenko
In 7:06, how much damage will he do? Emelianenko Rogers
Significant Strikes41
Emelianenko's excellent striking offense will dominate Rogers's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 64 Significant Strikes in 7:06
Excellent
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Emelianenko's average takedown offense is matched by Rogers's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 4 Takedowns in 7:06
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Emelianenko has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Emelianenko has a good chance of winning by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Good
Resistance
Decision
Emelianenko has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Average
Scoring ability
Rogers on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Emelianenko’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Brett
Rogers
In 7:06, how much damage will he do? Rogers Emelianenko
Significant Strikes19
Rogers's good striking offense won't be a factor against Emelianenko's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 64 Significant Strikes in 7:06
Good
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns0
Rogers's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Emelianenko's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 4 Takedowns in 7:06
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Rogers has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Rogers is unlikely to win by submission
Poor
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Rogers is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Emelianenko 9.0
fighter Rogers 8.7
Great striking by Emelianenko
50 strikes Aug 28, 2005 vs Filipovic
65 strikes Dec 31, 2004 vs Nogueira
79 strikes Mar 16, 2003 vs Nogueira

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Emelianenko 8.0
fighter Rogers 7.9
Great takedowns by Emelianenko
4 takedowns Aug 28, 2005 vs Filipovic
5 takedowns Dec 31, 2004 vs Nogueira
1 takedown Mar 16, 2003 vs Nogueira

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Emelianenko 8.5
fighter Rogers 8.3
Great knockouts by Emelianenko
Round 2 Nov 07, 2009 vs Rogers
Round 1 Jan 24, 2009 vs Arlovski
Round 1 Nov 24, 2002 vs Herring

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Emelianenko 8.3
fighter Rogers 6.3
Great submissions by Emelianenko
Round 1 Jul 19, 2008 vs Sylvia
Round 1 Apr 14, 2007 vs Lindland
Round 2 Oct 21, 2006 vs Coleman

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Emelianenko 9.5
fighter Rogers 8.1
Fast finishes by Emelianenko
194 seconds Jan 24, 2009 vs Arlovski
36 seconds Jul 19, 2008 vs Sylvia
178 seconds Apr 14, 2007 vs Lindland
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
team
VS
team
XR2 KO
XR3 SUB
1,9262,334
1,9172,342
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Emelianenko
legend Rogers
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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