UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Justino vs Carano

1,993

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Justino

prediction

BY KO ROUND 2

prediction
77% chance Justino
WILL WIN

1,782

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Cristiane Justino
Much heavier hands 9.7 vs 7.7 More than 25% better at knocking out good defenders
Better striker 9.1 vs 8.5 More than 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Fast finishes 8.6 vs 7.7 More than 10% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Significantly better takedown defense 8.9 vs 8.1 More than 10% better at avoiding being taken down
Puts up a fight 8.8 vs 8.0 More than 10% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Better submission defense 8.8 vs 8.0 Around 10% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Longer reach 175 cm vs 169 cm Around 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Heavier 144 lbs vs 142 lbs Almost the same
Stronger jaw 8.5 vs 7.9 More than 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Stronger takedown offense 8.2 vs 7.9 Around 5% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Younger 31 years vs 34 years Around 10% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Harder to hit 8.9 vs 8.8 Almost the same
Advantages for Gina Carano
Significantly better submission offense 7.0 vs 6.2 Around 15% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Justino on the attack Our prediction about how she’ll perform against Carano’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Cristiane
Justino
In 7:16, how much damage will she do? Justino Carano
Significant Strikes39
Justino's excellent striking offense will dominate Carano's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 65 Significant Strikes in 7:16
Excellent
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Justino's average takedown offense is matched by Carano's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 4 Takedowns in 7:16
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on her feet
If she wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Justino has a good chance of winning by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Good
Jaw
Submission
Justino is unlikely to win by submission
Poor
Submission ability
vs
Good
Resistance
Decision
Justino is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
Carano on the attack Our prediction about how she’ll perform against Justino’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Gina
Carano
In 7:16, how much damage will she do? Carano Justino
Significant Strikes28
Carano's average striking offense won't be a factor against Justino's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 65 Significant Strikes in 7:16
Average
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Carano's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Justino's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 4 Takedowns in 7:16
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on her feet
If she wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Carano is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Carano is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Carano is unlikely to win by decision
Good
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Justino 9.1
fighter Carano 8.5
Great striking by Justino
52 strikes Jan 30, 2010 vs Coenen
40 strikes Aug 15, 2009 vs Carano
52 strikes Jul 26, 2008 vs Baszler

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Justino 8.2
fighter Carano 7.9
Great takedowns by Justino
1 takedown Jan 30, 2010 vs Coenen
2 takedowns Aug 15, 2009 vs Carano
1 takedown Apr 11, 2009 vs Akano

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Justino 9.7
fighter Carano 7.7
Great knockouts by Justino
Round 4 Jul 13, 2013 vs Coenen
Round 3 Jan 30, 2010 vs Coenen
Round 1 Aug 15, 2009 vs Carano

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Justino 6.2
fighter Carano 7.0
Great submissions by Carano
Round 1 Sep 15, 2007 vs Evinger

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Justino 8.6
fighter Carano 7.7
Fast finishes by Justino
1142 seconds Jul 13, 2013 vs Coenen
820 seconds Jan 30, 2010 vs Coenen
299 seconds Aug 15, 2009 vs Carano
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
team
VS
team
R1 KOX
XDEC
1,8061,833
1,8601,779
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Justino
legend Carano
Read More
Justino vs Rousey
Fantasy Cage Match
Carano vs Rousey
Fantasy Cage Match
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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