UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Melancon vs Gastelum

1,760

CageRank

WINNER
Gastelum

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
75% chance Gastelum
WILL WIN

1,949

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Kelvin Gastelum
Significantly better submission offense 7.5 vs 6.9 Around 10% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Significantly younger 26 years vs 35 years More than 25% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Stronger takedown offense 8.8 vs 8.4 More than 5% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Better takedown defense 8.3 vs 8.0 Around 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Better submission defense 8.2 vs 7.9 Around 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Heavier 184 lbs vs 169 lbs Around 10% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Puts up a fight 8.5 vs 8.2 Around 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Harder to hit 8.5 vs 8.4 Almost the same
Taller 175 cm vs 173 cm Almost the same
Advantages for Brian Melancon
Heavier hands 8.0 vs 7.6 Around 5% better at knocking out good defenders
Gastelum on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Melancon’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Kelvin
Gastelum
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Gastelum Melancon
Significant Strikes75
Gastelum's average striking offense is matched by Melancon's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns5
Gastelum's good takedown offense may be a factor against Melancon's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Good
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Gastelum is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Gastelum is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Good
Resistance
Decision
Gastelum has a chance to win by decision
Good
Scoring ability
vs
Average
Scoring ability
Melancon on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Gastelum’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Brian
Melancon
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Melancon Gastelum
Significant Strikes72
Melancon's average striking offense is matched by Gastelum's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns3
Melancon's average takedown offense is matched by Gastelum's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Melancon is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Melancon is unlikely to win by submission
Below average
Submission ability
vs
Good
Resistance
Decision
Melancon is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Gastelum 8.5
fighter Melancon 8.5
Great striking by Melancon
24 strikes Jul 06, 2013 vs Baczynski

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Gastelum 8.9
fighter Melancon 8.4
Great takedowns by Gastelum
1 takedown Aug 28, 2013 vs Melancon
3 takedowns Apr 13, 2013 vs Hall

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Gastelum 7.6
fighter Melancon 8.0
Great knockouts by Melancon
Round 1 Jul 06, 2013 vs Baczynski
Round 1 Jul 31, 2010 vs Moore
Round 1 Jun 11, 2009 vs Jones

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Gastelum 7.5
fighter Melancon 6.9
Great submissions by Gastelum
Round 1 Aug 28, 2013 vs Melancon
Round 1 Jul 07, 2012 vs Smallwood
Round 2 Dec 11, 2010 vs Sanchez

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Gastelum 7.9
fighter Melancon 8.0
Fast finishes by Melancon
299 seconds Jul 06, 2013 vs Baczynski
60 seconds Jul 31, 2010 vs Moore
95 seconds May 23, 2009 vs Battle
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
team
VS
team
XR1 SUB
R2 KOX
1,8191,753
1,7601,812
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Gastelum
legend Melancon
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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