UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Garcia vs Swick

1,946

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Garcia

prediction

BY Submission ROUND 3

prediction
52% chance Garcia
WILL WIN

1,931

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Alex Garcia
Significantly younger 30 years vs 39 years Around 25% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Significantly better submission offense 7.7 vs 7.0 More than 10% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Stronger takedown offense 8.3 vs 7.8 More than 5% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Better striker 8.7 vs 8.4 Around 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Fast finishes 8.6 vs 8.4 Around 5% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Heavier 170 lbs vs 169 lbs Almost the same
Advantages for Mike Swick
Much taller 185 cm vs 175 cm More than 5% taller
Heavier hands 8.5 vs 7.8 Around 10% better at knocking out good defenders
Stronger jaw 8.7 vs 8.1 Around 10% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Better takedown defense 8.5 vs 8.3 Around 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Puts up a fight 8.9 vs 8.5 More than 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Harder to hit 8.7 vs 8.6 Almost the same
Garcia on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Swick’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Alex
Garcia
In 11:03, how much damage will he do? Garcia Swick
Significant Strikes51
Garcia's good striking offense may be a factor against Swick's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 99 Significant Strikes in 11:03
Good
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Garcia's average takedown offense is matched by Swick's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 11:03
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Garcia is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Garcia is unlikely to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Garcia is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
Swick on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Garcia’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Mike
Swick
In 11:03, how much damage will he do? Swick Garcia
Significant Strikes47
Swick's average striking offense is matched by Garcia's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 99 Significant Strikes in 11:03
Average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Swick's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Garcia's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 11:03
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Swick has a good chance of winning by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Good
Jaw
Submission
Swick is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Swick is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Garcia 8.7
fighter Swick 8.4
Great striking by Garcia
9 strikes Dec 07, 2013 vs Wall

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Garcia 7.9
fighter Swick 8.5
Great knockouts by Swick
Round 2 Aug 04, 2012 vs Johnson
Round 2 Jun 13, 2009 vs Saunders
Round 1 Dec 10, 2008 vs Goulet

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Garcia 7.7
fighter Swick 7.0
Great submissions by Garcia
Round 1 Aug 17, 2013 vs Heatherly
Round 1 Nov 13, 2010 vs Jackson
Round 1 Jun 18, 2010 vs Goodall

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Garcia 8.6
fighter Swick 8.4
Fast finishes by Garcia
43 seconds Dec 07, 2013 vs Wall
102 seconds Aug 17, 2013 vs Heatherly
34 seconds Oct 21, 2011 vs MacGrath
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
July 11, 2015UFC 189
team
VS
team
R3 DECX
XX
00
00
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Garcia
legend Swick
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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