UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Nunes vs Rousey

1,791

CageRank

WINNER
Rousey

prediction

BY Submission ROUND 1

prediction
84% chance Rousey
WILL WIN

2,076

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Ronda Rousey
Much better submission offense 9.3 vs 6.6 More than 40% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Fast finishes 9.9 vs 8.5 More than 15% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Significantly stronger takedown offense 9.4 vs 8.7 Around 10% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Stronger jaw 8.6 vs 8.2 Around 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Taller 168 cm vs 165 cm Almost the same
Better takedown defense 9.0 vs 8.8 Almost the same
Puts up a fight 8.7 vs 8.5 Around 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Advantages for Amanda Nunes
Much heavier hands 8.8 vs 7.4 Around 20% better at knocking out good defenders
Significantly heavier 136 lbs vs 134 lbs Almost the same
Significantly longer reach 175 cm vs 168 cm Around 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Better striker 8.8 vs 8.5 Around 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Younger 28 years vs 30 years More than 5% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Rousey on the attack Our prediction about how she’ll perform against Nunes’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Ronda
Rousey
In 4:12, how much damage will she do? Rousey Nunes
Significant Strikes19
Rousey's average striking offense is matched by Nunes's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 38 Significant Strikes in 4:12
Average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Rousey's excellent takedown offense will dominate Nunes's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 2 Takedowns in 4:12
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on her feet
If she wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Rousey is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Good
Jaw
Submission
Rousey has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Rousey is unlikely to win by decision
Poor
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
Nunes on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Rousey’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Amanda
Nunes
In 4:12, how much damage will he do? Nunes Rousey
Significant Strikes22
Nunes's good striking offense may be a factor against Rousey's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 38 Significant Strikes in 4:12
Good
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Nunes's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Rousey's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 2 Takedowns in 4:12
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Nunes has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Nunes is unlikely to win by submission
Below average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Nunes is unlikely to win by decision
Poor
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Rousey 8.5
fighter Nunes 8.8
Great striking by Nunes
14 strikes Nov 06, 2013 vs de Randamie
10 strikes Aug 03, 2013 vs Gaff
11 strikes Jan 07, 2011 vs Budd

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Rousey 9.4
fighter Nunes 8.7
Great takedowns by Rousey
6 takedowns Dec 28, 2013 vs Tate
1 takedown Aug 18, 2012 vs Kaufman
3 takedowns Mar 03, 2012 vs Tate

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Rousey 7.4
fighter Nunes 8.8
Great knockouts by Nunes
Round 1 Aug 03, 2013 vs Gaff
Round 2 Feb 25, 2010 vs Gomes
Round 2 Dec 12, 2009 vs Porto

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Rousey 9.3
fighter Nunes 6.6
Great submissions by Rousey
Round 3 Dec 28, 2013 vs Tate
Round 1 Aug 18, 2012 vs Kaufman
Round 1 Mar 03, 2012 vs Tate

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Rousey 9.9
fighter Nunes 8.5
Fast finishes by Rousey
658 seconds Dec 28, 2013 vs Tate
54 seconds Aug 18, 2012 vs Kaufman
267 seconds Mar 03, 2012 vs Tate
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
December 30, 2016UFC 207
team
VS
team
R1 KOX
XX
00
00
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Rousey
legend Nunes
Read More
Nunes vs Holm
Fantasy Cage Match
Rousey vs Lesnar
Fantasy Cage Match
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
Showing 5 comments.
You were saying??? LOL
Ronda will win he she takes Nunes down. Ronda will lose if she tries to stand up and trade with Nunes. It is her decision is to the outcome of the fight. Nunes is the better boxer. Ronda is the better MMA fighter.
As much as I love statistics, there's a few things statistics can't capture. First is that Ronda has been off the fighting circuit for more than a year, and her last fight was a devastating loss that is hard to bounce back from. Next, she hasn't switched training camps... that means no fresh tactics, no new advice, and no one around her to truly be honest about her performance. Also, she's spent time living it up out here in California... I hate to be blunt, but I think its much tougher to be a pro-fighter when you've seen, felt, and experienced life earning big money outside the cage. There's always the itch in the back of your mind that you can make money without punishing your body anymore. Lastly, (and possibly the most important), is that statistics don't capture how the rest of the division's skill set may have elevated in her absence. Fight games evolve, and the women had the sharpest curve to try to make. One year doesn't sound like a lot of time, but in the fight game, that's a long time for someone to be out. I could be wrong: Ronda may come out and dominate in the first round. But she's not invincible, unbeatable, or a machine... and everyone knows it now. She's been hurt, humiliated, and the other fighters all know that's its not only possible to beat her, it can be done in spectacular fashion. Say what you will about Holly Holm, but she came in and wrecked Ronda... Ronda's swing and a miss as Holly ducked under her punch and Ronda looking dumbfounded as she got off her own knee is iconic in my brain. I'm not sure Ronda's bounced back from that. She's a bundle of bad attitude... I don't give her the same odds because I don't think she's the same fighter anymore.
Wait! You only gave Nunes 20% better KO percentage over Rousey???? Nunes has 9 KO to Rousey's 3. So Rousey has 33% of Nunes KO's. Nunes should be 99% better KO percentage when comparing KO to KO. Nunes has 17 fights with 13 wins with 9 by way of KO equaling a 53% KO percentage. Rousey has 13 fights with with 12 wins with 3 KO's equaling a 23% KO percentage. Nunes as a whole has a 30% better KO percentage. Holly Holm has a 58% KO percentage by comparison. You guys are WAY off on this one and the fight in general. WOW!
Roused will get KO'd before round 2 is over.
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