UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Coenen vs Modafferi

1,846

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Coenen

prediction

BY Submission ROUND 3

prediction
81% chance Coenen
WILL WIN

1,600

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Marloes Coenen
Much better submission offense 8.4 vs 7.0 Around 20% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Fast finishes 8.0 vs 7.2 More than 10% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Much harder to hit 9.0 vs 8.2 Around 10% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Puts up a fight 8.9 vs 8.3 More than 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Taller 175 cm vs 168 cm Around 5% taller
Heavier hands 6.6 vs 6.3 Around 5% better at knocking out good defenders
Heavier 144 lbs vs 125 lbs More than 15% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Better submission defense 8.7 vs 8.4 Around 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Advantages for Roxanne Modafferi
Stronger takedown offense 8.1 vs 7.7 More than 5% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Longer reach 175 cm vs 171 cm Almost the same
Slightly younger 35 years vs 37 years More than 5% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Coenen on the attack Our prediction about how she’ll perform against Modafferi’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Marloes
Coenen
In 10:55, how much damage will she do? Coenen Modafferi
Significant Strikes57
Coenen's average striking offense may be a factor against Modafferi's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 98 Significant Strikes in 10:55
Average
Striking
vs
Below average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Coenen's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Modafferi's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 10:55
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on her feet
If she wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Coenen is unlikely to win by knockout
Weak
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Coenen has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Coenen has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Below average
Scoring ability
Modafferi on the attack Our prediction about how she’ll perform against Coenen’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Roxanne
Modafferi
In 10:55, how much damage will she do? Modafferi Coenen
Significant Strikes38
Modafferi's average striking offense won't be a factor against Coenen's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 98 Significant Strikes in 10:55
Average
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Modafferi's average takedown offense is matched by Coenen's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 10:55
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on her feet
If she wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Modafferi is unlikely to win by knockout
Weak
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Modafferi is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Modafferi is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Coenen 8.4
fighter Modafferi 8.4
Great striking by Coenen
32 strikes Mar 05, 2011 vs Carmouche
28 strikes Oct 09, 2010 vs Kaufman
7 strikes Nov 07, 2009 vs Modafferi

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Coenen 6.6
fighter Modafferi 6.3
Great knockouts by Coenen
Round 1 Oct 05, 2008 vs Kubra
Round 2 Apr 30, 2005 vs Kondo
Round 1 Dec 19, 2004 vs Takahashi

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Coenen 8.4
fighter Modafferi 7.0
Great submissions by Coenen
Round 4 Mar 05, 2011 vs Carmouche
Round 3 Oct 09, 2010 vs Kaufman
Round 1 Nov 07, 2009 vs Modafferi

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Coenen 8.0
fighter Modafferi 7.2
Fast finishes by Coenen
719 seconds Oct 09, 2010 vs Kaufman
65 seconds Nov 07, 2009 vs Modafferi
85 seconds Dec 05, 2000 vs Levi
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
team
VS
team
R1 SUBX
XDEC
1,7581,860
1,8221,796
May 27, 2007K - GRACE 1
team
VS
team
XR2 DEC
R2 SUBX
1,8761,737
1,8071,806
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Coenen
legend Modafferi
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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