UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Fernandes vs Aldo

2,129

CageRank

WINNER
Aldo

prediction

BY KO ROUND 3

prediction
74% chance Aldo
WILL WIN

2,308

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Jose Aldo
Much heavier hands 8.8 vs 6.8 More than 30% better at knocking out good defenders
Significantly fast finishes 8.7 vs 8.1 More than 5% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Significantly harder to hit 9.2 vs 8.8 Around 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Significantly better submission defense 9.5 vs 8.8 More than 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Puts up a fight 9.6 vs 9.1 More than 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Better striker 8.9 vs 8.6 Around 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Younger 31 years vs 37 years More than 15% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Better takedown defense 9.5 vs 9.1 Around 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Heavier 144 lbs vs 134 lbs More than 5% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Advantages for Bibiano Fernandes
Much better submission offense 7.8 vs 6.6 Around 20% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Much stronger takedown offense 9.3 vs 7.9 Around 20% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Aldo on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Fernandes’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Jose
Aldo
In 11:22, how much damage will he do? Aldo Fernandes
Significant Strikes56
Aldo's good striking offense may be a factor against Fernandes's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 102 Significant Strikes in 11:22
Good
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Aldo's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Fernandes's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 11:22
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Aldo has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Aldo is unlikely to win by submission
Poor
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Aldo has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Fernandes on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Aldo’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Bibiano
Fernandes
In 11:22, how much damage will he do? Fernandes Aldo
Significant Strikes39
Fernandes's average striking offense won't be a factor against Aldo's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 102 Significant Strikes in 11:22
Average
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Fernandes's excellent takedown offense is matched by Aldo's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 11:22
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Fernandes is unlikely to win by knockout
Below average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Fernandes is unlikely to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Fernandes has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Aldo 8.9
fighter Fernandes 8.6
Great striking by Aldo
76 strikes Feb 02, 2013 vs Edgar
51 strikes Oct 08, 2011 vs Florian
38 strikes Nov 18, 2009 vs Thomas Brown

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Aldo 7.9
fighter Fernandes 9.3
Great takedowns by Fernandes
1 takedown Dec 31, 2011 vs Marques
6 takedowns Mar 22, 2010 vs Hansen
4 takedowns May 26, 2009 vs Imanari

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Aldo 8.8
fighter Fernandes 6.8
Great knockouts by Aldo
Round 1 Jan 14, 2012 vs Mendes
Round 2 Nov 18, 2009 vs Thomas Brown
Round 1 Jun 07, 2009 vs Swanson

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Aldo 6.6
fighter Fernandes 7.8
Great submissions by Fernandes
Round 1 Dec 31, 2012 vs Maeda
Round 1 Sep 24, 2011 vs Otsuka
Round 1 Oct 25, 2008 vs Tam

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Aldo 8.7
fighter Fernandes 8.1
Fast finishes by Aldo
299 seconds Jan 14, 2012 vs Mendes
380 seconds Nov 18, 2009 vs Thomas Brown
8 seconds Jun 07, 2009 vs Swanson
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Aldo
legend Fernandes
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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