UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Mattos vs Palhares

1,574

CageRank

WINNER
Palhares

prediction

BY Submission ROUND 1

prediction
95% chance Palhares
WILL WIN

2,100

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Rousimar Palhares
Much better submission offense 9.7 vs 6.8 More than 40% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Fast finishes 9.6 vs 7.7 Around 25% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Puts up a fight 9.0 vs 6.9 Around 30% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Much better submission defense 9.3 vs 7.5 Around 25% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Much better takedown defense 9.0 vs 7.7 More than 15% better at avoiding being taken down
Significantly stronger jaw 8.3 vs 7.5 More than 10% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Significantly harder to hit 8.9 vs 8.4 More than 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Advantages for Claudio Mattos
Much heavier hands 7.7 vs 6.3 More than 20% better at knocking out good defenders
Better striker 8.1 vs 7.5 Around 10% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Heavier 186 lbs vs 169 lbs More than 10% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Palhares on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Mattos’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Rousimar
Palhares
In 1:09, how much damage will he do? Palhares Mattos
Significant Strikes3
Palhares's poor striking offense won't be a factor against Mattos's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 10 Significant Strikes in 1:09
Poor
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns0
Palhares's average takedown offense may be a factor against Mattos's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 1 Takedowns in 1:09
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Below average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Palhares is unlikely to win by knockout
Weak
Knockout ability
vs
Average
Jaw
Submission
Palhares has a very good chance of winning by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Average
Resistance
Decision
Palhares is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
Mattos on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Palhares’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Claudio
Mattos
In 1:09, how much damage will he do? Mattos Palhares
Significant Strikes3
Mattos's average striking offense won't be a factor against Palhares's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 10 Significant Strikes in 1:09
Average
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns0
Mattos's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Palhares's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 1 Takedowns in 1:09
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Mattos has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Good
Jaw
Submission
Mattos is unlikely to win by submission
Below average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Mattos is unlikely to win by decision
Poor
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Palhares 8.3
fighter Mattos 8.3
Great takedowns by Palhares
2 takedowns Aug 27, 2011 vs Miller
1 takedown Dec 12, 2009 vs Linhares
7 takedowns Jan 17, 2009 vs Horn

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Palhares 6.3
fighter Mattos 7.8
Great knockouts by Mattos
Round 2 Sep 12, 2009 vs Geraldo de Oliveira
Round 1 Mar 19, 2005 vs Jensen
Round 1 Nov 28, 2004 vs Silva

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Palhares 9.7
fighter Mattos 6.8
Great submissions by Palhares
Round 1 Oct 09, 2013 vs Pierce
Round 1 Mar 27, 2010 vs Drwal
Round 2 Dec 12, 2009 vs Linhares

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Palhares 9.6
fighter Mattos 7.7
Fast finishes by Palhares
31 seconds Oct 09, 2013 vs Pierce
404 seconds Mar 03, 2011 vs Branch
45 seconds Mar 27, 2010 vs Drwal
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
November 25, 2006SS 12 - Storm Samurai 12
team
VS
team
XR1 SUB
R2 KOX
1,5861,541
1,5291,597
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Palhares
legend Mattos
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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