UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Butenko vs Nelson

1,950

CageRank

WINNER
Nelson

prediction

BY Submission ROUND 3

prediction
65% chance Nelson
WILL WIN

2,061

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Gunnar Nelson
Much better submission offense 9.4 vs 7.8 More than 20% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Fast finishes 9.0 vs 7.6 Around 20% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Much heavier hands 7.1 vs 6.3 Around 15% better at knocking out good defenders
Heavier 169 lbs vs 155 lbs Around 10% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Slightly younger 28 years vs 30 years More than 5% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Advantages for Alexander Butenko
Better submission defense 9.3 vs 8.8 Around 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Stronger jaw 8.9 vs 8.7 Around 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Nelson on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Butenko’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Gunnar
Nelson
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Nelson is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Nelson has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Nelson is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Butenko on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Nelson’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Alexander
Butenko
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Butenko is unlikely to win by knockout
Weak
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Butenko is unlikely to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Butenko is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Nelson 7.1
fighter Butenko 6.3
Great knockouts by Nelson
Round 2 Sep 06, 2008 vs Mascarenhas
Round 1 Dec 09, 2007 vs Mairs
Round 1 Oct 06, 2007 vs Slawinski

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Nelson 9.4
fighter Butenko 7.8
Great submissions by Nelson
Round 1 Feb 25, 2012 vs Butenko
Round 1 Sep 25, 2010 vs Fadiora
Round 1 Aug 28, 2010 vs Mitchell

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Nelson 9.0
fighter Butenko 7.6
Fast finishes by Nelson
261 seconds Feb 25, 2012 vs Butenko
231 seconds Sep 25, 2010 vs Fadiora
171 seconds Aug 28, 2010 vs Mitchell
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
team
VS
team
XR1 SUB
XR1 SUB
1,7471,848
1,7111,884
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Nelson
legend Butenko
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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