UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Fili vs Johnson

1,873

CageRank

WINNER
Johnson

prediction

BY KO ROUND 3

prediction
70% chance Johnson
WILL WIN

2,023

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Michael Johnson
Much better takedown defense 8.9 vs 7.9 Around 15% better at avoiding being taken down
Stronger jaw 9.0 vs 8.4 Around 10% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Puts up a fight 9.3 vs 8.6 More than 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Better submission defense 8.6 vs 8.2 Around 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Harder to hit 8.6 vs 8.5 Almost the same
Slightly heavier hands 8.3 vs 8.1 Almost the same
Advantages for Andre Fili
Much stronger takedown offense 8.7 vs 7.8 More than 10% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Significantly better submission offense 7.4 vs 6.6 More than 10% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Younger 28 years vs 32 years Around 15% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Slightly fast finishes 8.1 vs 8.0 Almost the same
Slightly better striker 8.6 vs 8.6 Almost the same
Johnson on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Fili’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Michael
Johnson
In 11:59, how much damage will he do? Johnson Fili
Significant Strikes60
Johnson's average striking offense is matched by Fili's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 108 Significant Strikes in 11:59
Average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Johnson's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Fili's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 7 Takedowns in 11:59
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Johnson has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Johnson is unlikely to win by submission
Below average
Submission ability
vs
Good
Resistance
Decision
Johnson has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Fili on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Johnson’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Andre
Fili
In 11:59, how much damage will he do? Fili Johnson
Significant Strikes57
Fili's good striking offense may be a factor against Johnson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 108 Significant Strikes in 11:59
Good
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Fili's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Johnson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 7 Takedowns in 11:59
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Fili has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Fili is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Fili is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Johnson 8.6
fighter Fili 8.6
Great striking by Fili
55 strikes Oct 19, 2013 vs Larsen

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Johnson 7.8
fighter Fili 8.7
Great takedowns by Fili
1 takedown Oct 19, 2013 vs Larsen

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Johnson 8.3
fighter Fili 8.1
Great knockouts by Johnson
Round 2 Dec 28, 2013 vs Tibau
Round 2 Oct 05, 2012 vs Castillo
Round 1 Oct 03, 2009 vs Derrow

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Johnson 6.6
fighter Fili 7.4
Great submissions by Fili
Round 2 Sep 07, 2012 vs Wallace
Round 1 Apr 21, 2012 vs Muramoto
Round 2 Jan 07, 2012 vs Dennis

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Johnson 8.0
fighter Fili 8.1
Fast finishes by Fili
353 seconds Oct 19, 2013 vs Larsen
548 seconds Sep 07, 2012 vs Wallace
411 seconds Jan 07, 2012 vs Dennis
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Johnson
legend Fili
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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