UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Murphy vs Souza

1,540

CageRank

WINNER
Souza

prediction

BY Submission ROUND 1

prediction
98% chance Souza
WILL WIN

2,245

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Ronaldo Souza
Much better takedown defense 9.4 vs 7.9 Around 20% better at avoiding being taken down
Fast finishes 9.3 vs 7.7 More than 20% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Much better submission offense 9.0 vs 7.2 More than 25% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Puts up a fight 9.5 vs 7.3 Around 30% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Much harder to hit 9.5 vs 8.6 More than 10% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Much better submission defense 9.2 vs 7.1 Around 30% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Much stronger jaw 9.1 vs 7.4 Around 25% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Significantly better striker 8.7 vs 8.1 Around 10% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Stronger takedown offense 9.2 vs 8.7 More than 5% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Taller 183 cm vs 178 cm Around 5% taller
Advantages for Ian Murphy
Younger 32 years vs 37 years Around 15% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Heavier hands 7.8 vs 7.3 More than 5% better at knocking out good defenders
Heavier 184 lbs vs 183 lbs Almost the same
Souza on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Murphy’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Ronaldo
Souza
In 2:13, how much damage will he do? Souza Murphy
Significant Strikes11
Souza's good striking offense may be a factor against Murphy's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 20 Significant Strikes in 2:13
Good
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Souza's excellent takedown offense will dominate Murphy's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 1 Takedowns in 2:13
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Souza has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Average
Jaw
Submission
Souza has a very good chance of winning by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Average
Resistance
Decision
Souza has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Average
Scoring ability
Murphy on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Souza’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Ian
Murphy
In 2:13, how much damage will he do? Murphy Souza
Significant Strikes4
Murphy's average striking offense won't be a factor against Souza's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 20 Significant Strikes in 2:13
Average
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns0
Murphy's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Souza's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 1 Takedowns in 2:13
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Murphy is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Murphy is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Murphy is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Souza 8.7
fighter Murphy 8.1
Great striking by Souza
28 strikes Sep 04, 2013 vs Okami
12 strikes Jan 29, 2011 vs Lawler
47 strikes Aug 21, 2010 vs Kennedy

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Souza 9.2
fighter Murphy 8.7
Great takedowns by Souza
2 takedowns Jan 12, 2013 vs Herman
4 takedowns Jan 29, 2011 vs Lawler
3 takedowns Jun 15, 2008 vs Miller

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Souza 7.3
fighter Murphy 7.8
Great knockouts by Murphy
Round 1 Mar 12, 2009 vs Velasquez

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Souza 9.0
fighter Murphy 7.2
Great submissions by Souza
Round 1 May 18, 2013 vs Camozzi
Round 3 Jan 29, 2011 vs Lawler
Round 1 Dec 19, 2009 vs Lindland

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Souza 9.4
fighter Murphy 7.7
Fast finishes by Souza
167 seconds Sep 04, 2013 vs Okami
217 seconds May 18, 2013 vs Camozzi
720 seconds Jan 29, 2011 vs Lawler
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
April 29, 2008Dream 2
team
VS
team
XR1 SUB
XR3 SUB
1,5001,814
1,4861,828
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Souza
legend Murphy
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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