UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Sterling vs Assuncao

1,985

CageRank

WINNER
Assuncao

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
66% chance Assuncao
WILL WIN

2,100

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Raphael Assuncao
Much better takedown defense 9.2 vs 7.9 More than 15% better at avoiding being taken down
Significantly harder to hit 9.0 vs 8.7 Around 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Significantly better striker 8.8 vs 8.4 Around 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Puts up a fight 9.3 vs 8.5 Around 10% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Better submission defense 9.2 vs 8.5 Around 10% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Stronger jaw 8.7 vs 8.3 Around 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Fast finishes 7.8 vs 7.6 Almost the same
Advantages for Aljamain Sterling
Much longer winning streak 9 fights vs 3 fights 3x longer winning streak; has momentum coming into a fight
Younger 28 years vs 35 years 20% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Taller 170 cm vs 165 cm Around 5% taller
Stronger takedown offense 8.6 vs 8.2 Around 5% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Heavier hands 7.3 vs 6.9 More than 5% better at knocking out good defenders
Better submission offense 8.1 vs 7.7 Around 5% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Assuncao on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Sterling’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Raphael
Assuncao
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Assuncao Sterling
Significant Strikes76
Assuncao's good striking offense may be a factor against Sterling's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Good
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns4
Assuncao's average takedown offense is matched by Sterling's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Assuncao is unlikely to win by knockout
Below average
Knockout ability
vs
Good
Jaw
Submission
Assuncao is unlikely to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Assuncao has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Sterling on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Assuncao’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Aljamain
Sterling
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Sterling Assuncao
Significant Strikes52
Sterling's average striking offense won't be a factor against Assuncao's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Average
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Sterling's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Assuncao's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Sterling is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Sterling has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Sterling is unlikely to win by decision
Good
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Assuncao 8.8
fighter Sterling 8.4
Great striking by Assuncao
57 strikes Dec 08, 2012 vs Easton
53 strikes Aug 27, 2011 vs Eduardo
47 strikes Nov 11, 2010 vs Davis

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Assuncao 8.2
fighter Sterling 8.6
Great takedowns by Sterling
3 takedowns Feb 22, 2014 vs Gibson

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Assuncao 6.9
fighter Sterling 7.3
Great knockouts by Sterling
Round 3 Jul 16, 2014 vs Viana
Round 1 Jul 23, 2011 vs Chmielski

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Assuncao 7.7
fighter Sterling 8.1
Great submissions by Sterling
Round 1 Nov 02, 2013 vs Roberts
Round 2 Aug 24, 2012 vs Honorio
Round 3 Apr 14, 2012 vs Johnson

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Assuncao 7.8
fighter Sterling 7.6
Fast finishes by Assuncao
325 seconds Jul 11, 2012 vs Tamura
702 seconds Oct 14, 2006 vs Birdsley
577 seconds Feb 18, 2006 vs Lauzon
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
January 28, 2017UFC on Fox 23
team
VS
team
XR3 DEC
XX
00
00
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Assuncao
legend Sterling
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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