UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Sterling vs Barao

1,985

CageRank

WINNER
Barao

prediction

BY Submission ROUND 2

prediction
77% chance Barao
WILL WIN

2,194

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Renan Barao
Much better takedown defense 9.3 vs 7.9 More than 15% better at avoiding being taken down
Fast finishes 8.6 vs 7.6 Around 15% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Puts up a fight 9.7 vs 8.5 Around 15% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Significantly better striker 8.8 vs 8.4 More than 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Significantly better submission defense 9.5 vs 8.5 More than 10% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Harder to hit 8.9 vs 8.7 Around 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Stronger jaw 8.9 vs 8.3 More than 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Heavier hands 7.7 vs 7.3 More than 5% better at knocking out good defenders
Better submission offense 8.5 vs 8.1 More than 5% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Advantages for Aljamain Sterling
Significantly stronger takedown offense 8.6 vs 8.0 Around 10% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Younger 28 years vs 30 years More than 5% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Barao on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Sterling’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Renan
Barao
In 9:33, how much damage will he do? Barao Sterling
Significant Strikes50
Barao's good striking offense may be a factor against Sterling's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 86 Significant Strikes in 9:33
Good
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Barao's average takedown offense is matched by Sterling's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 5 Takedowns in 9:33
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Barao has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Good
Jaw
Submission
Barao has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Barao is unlikely to win by decision
Good
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Sterling on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Barao’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Aljamain
Sterling
In 9:33, how much damage will he do? Sterling Barao
Significant Strikes35
Sterling's average striking offense won't be a factor against Barao's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 86 Significant Strikes in 9:33
Average
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Sterling's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Barao's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 5 Takedowns in 9:33
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Sterling is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Sterling has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Sterling is unlikely to win by decision
Good
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Barao 8.9
fighter Sterling 8.4
Great striking by Barao
36 strikes Feb 16, 2013 vs McDonald
85 strikes Jul 21, 2012 vs Faber
104 strikes Feb 04, 2012 vs Jorgensen

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Barao 8.0
fighter Sterling 8.6
Great takedowns by Sterling
3 takedowns Feb 22, 2014 vs Gibson

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Barao 7.7
fighter Sterling 7.3
Great knockouts by Barao
Round 2 Sep 21, 2013 vs Wineland
Round 2 Aug 13, 2009 vs Sardinha
Round 3 Nov 29, 2008 vs Pinheiro

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Barao 8.5
fighter Sterling 8.1
Great submissions by Barao
Round 4 Feb 16, 2013 vs McDonald
Round 1 Nov 05, 2011 vs Pickett
Round 1 Dec 16, 2010 vs Cariaso

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Barao 8.6
fighter Sterling 7.6
Fast finishes by Barao
335 seconds Sep 21, 2013 vs Wineland
1137 seconds Feb 16, 2013 vs McDonald
249 seconds Nov 05, 2011 vs Pickett
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Barao
legend Sterling
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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