UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Sterling vs Caraway

1,985

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Sterling

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
53% chance Sterling
WILL WIN

1,963

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Aljamain Sterling
Significantly heavier hands 7.3 vs 6.4 Around 15% better at knocking out good defenders
Younger 29 years vs 34 years Around 15% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Better striker 8.4 vs 8.2 Almost the same
Advantages for Bryan Caraway
Much better submission offense 9.5 vs 8.1 More than 15% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Much better takedown defense 9.0 vs 7.9 Around 15% better at avoiding being taken down
Significantly fast finishes 8.3 vs 7.6 Around 10% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Stronger takedown offense 9.2 vs 8.6 More than 5% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Taller 175 cm vs 170 cm Around 5% taller
Stronger jaw 8.9 vs 8.3 More than 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Puts up a fight 9.1 vs 8.5 More than 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Better submission defense 9.0 vs 8.5 More than 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Sterling on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Caraway’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Aljamain
Sterling
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Sterling Caraway
Significant Strikes64
Sterling's average striking offense is matched by Caraway's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Sterling's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Caraway's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Sterling is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Sterling has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Sterling has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Good
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
Caraway on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Sterling’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Bryan
Caraway
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Caraway Sterling
Significant Strikes57
Caraway's average striking offense is matched by Sterling's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns6
Caraway's excellent takedown offense will dominate Sterling's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Caraway is unlikely to win by knockout
Weak
Knockout ability
vs
Good
Jaw
Submission
Caraway has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Caraway is unlikely to win by decision
Poor
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Sterling 8.4
fighter Caraway 8.2
Great striking by Sterling
46 strikes Feb 22, 2014 vs Gibson

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Sterling 8.6
fighter Caraway 9.2
Great takedowns by Caraway
3 takedowns Apr 27, 2013 vs Bedford
3 takedowns Jul 21, 2012 vs Gagnon
1 takedown Jun 27, 2008 vs Cacdac

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Sterling 7.3
fighter Caraway 6.4
Great knockouts by Sterling
Round 3 Jul 16, 2014 vs Viana
Round 1 Jul 23, 2011 vs Chmielski

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Sterling 8.1
fighter Caraway 9.5
Great submissions by Caraway
Round 3 Apr 27, 2013 vs Bedford
Round 3 Jul 21, 2012 vs Gagnon
Round 1 Feb 19, 2011 vs Weikel

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Sterling 7.6
fighter Caraway 8.3
Fast finishes by Caraway
884 seconds Apr 27, 2013 vs Bedford
197 seconds Feb 19, 2011 vs Weikel
235 seconds Oct 03, 2009 vs Pelczynski
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
May 29, 2016UFC Fight Night 88
team
VS
team
XR3 DEC
XX
00
00
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Sterling
legend Caraway
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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