UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Rio vs Ferguson

1,753

CageRank

WINNER
Ferguson

prediction

BY KO ROUND 2

prediction
79% chance Ferguson
WILL WIN

1,986

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Tony Ferguson
Much heavier hands 8.8 vs 7.4 Around 20% better at knocking out good defenders
Much longer reach 193 cm vs 178 cm Around 10% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Significantly better striker 8.6 vs 8.1 More than 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Significantly better takedown defense 8.9 vs 8.2 Around 10% better at avoiding being taken down
Significantly fast finishes 8.8 vs 8.1 Around 10% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Puts up a fight 8.9 vs 8.1 More than 10% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Taller 183 cm vs 178 cm Around 5% taller
Stronger jaw 8.9 vs 8.3 Around 10% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Better submission defense 8.4 vs 7.7 Around 10% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Younger 33 years vs 35 years More than 5% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Advantages for Mike Rio
Better submission offense 7.8 vs 7.2 Around 10% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Stronger takedown offense 8.4 vs 8.1 Around 5% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Ferguson on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Rio’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Tony
Ferguson
In 6:28, how much damage will he do? Ferguson Rio
Significant Strikes32
Ferguson's good striking offense may be a factor against Rio's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 58 Significant Strikes in 6:28
Good
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Ferguson's average takedown offense is matched by Rio's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 4 Takedowns in 6:28
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Ferguson has a good chance of winning by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Good
Jaw
Submission
Ferguson has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Average
Resistance
Decision
Ferguson is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Rio on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Ferguson’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Mike
Rio
In 6:28, how much damage will he do? Rio Ferguson
Significant Strikes24
Rio's average striking offense is matched by Ferguson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 58 Significant Strikes in 6:28
Average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Rio's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Ferguson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 4 Takedowns in 6:28
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Rio is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Rio is unlikely to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Rio is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Ferguson 8.6
fighter Rio 8.1
Great striking by Ferguson
5 strikes Oct 19, 2013 vs Rio
61 strikes Dec 03, 2011 vs Edwards
31 strikes Sep 24, 2011 vs Riley

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Ferguson 8.1
fighter Rio 8.4
Great takedowns by Rio
4 takedowns Dec 15, 2012 vs Cofer

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Ferguson 8.8
fighter Rio 7.4
Great knockouts by Ferguson
Round 1 Sep 24, 2011 vs Riley
Round 1 Jun 04, 2011 vs Nijem
Round 4 Sep 25, 2010 vs Jardine

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Ferguson 7.2
fighter Rio 7.8
Great submissions by Rio
Round 3 Dec 15, 2012 vs Cofer
Round 2 Oct 31, 2009 vs Galindo
Round 1 Nov 29, 2008 vs Robinson

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Ferguson 8.8
fighter Rio 8.1
Fast finishes by Ferguson
112 seconds Oct 19, 2013 vs Rio
300 seconds Sep 24, 2011 vs Riley
1055 seconds Sep 25, 2010 vs Jardine
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
October 19, 2013UFC 166
team
VS
team
XR1 SUB
XR2 KO
1,8041,880
1,7651,919
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Ferguson
legend Rio
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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